Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50c669f178da4e5bbea7f1be25041fd278914712fa87a6a6f8e57d5923d88dee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $419,524
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $200,411
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $419,524 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94e4…534abacked Yes | 0c | 48,237$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.57 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 14,841$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.19 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed Yes | 0c | 10,999$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 10,460$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6de5…3d0fbacked Yes | 1c | 10,267$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.22 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ce…fc99backed Yes | 0c | 8,965$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 2c | 6,169$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.21 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x667d…b543backed Yes | 0c | 5,949$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ba…dbc7backed Yes | 1c | 5,762$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…5647backed Yes | 0c | 5,756$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 0c | 5,452$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 5,197$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 1c | 5,003$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.58 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf20…9c66backed Yes | 4c | 3,719$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…ce25backed Yes | 1c | 3,490$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbb…377abacked Yes | 1c | 3,490$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb87d…85f3backed Yes | 2c | 3,394$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.66 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…6a53backed Yes | 1c | 3,305$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4762…dc1bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,048$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…1ee7backed Yes | 4c | 2,774$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -6.9wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x74f4…48d7backed Yes | 1c | 2,770$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8525…bdbabacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d49…6638backed Yes | 0c | 2,392$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab10…04d9backed Yes | 1c | 2,265$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 1c | 2,187$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 2,064$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x528e…2aa8backed Yes | 1c | 2,058$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…18cebacked Yes | 1c | 1,651$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…c310backed Yes | 1c | 1,447$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed Yes | 3c | 1,265$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 2c | 1,239$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 2c | 1,136$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 2c | 928.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 74 | 28.4%21 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…5871backed Yes | 2c | 865.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01d3…44acbacked Yes | 1c | 812.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 2c | 800$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 2c | 677.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed Yes | 3c | 624$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7215…bd1dbacked Yes | 2c | 600$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people?this page
- Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people?No won
- Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people?No won
- Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people?No won
- Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people?No won
- Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?Yes won
- Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people?No won
- Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people?No won
- Will Trump deport less than 250,000?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.