Us Politics · resolved market
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 between December and June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf346f3953d0320422b1199360c755bf67fdd4a9104b8ec36e508b4787e71467d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $750,321
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $738,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $750,321 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 421 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a2c…b3fbbacked Yes | 16c | 88,135$13,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74,209.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +216.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc001…d003backed Yes | 14c | 74,986$10,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64,862.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +146.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce2…774ebacked Yes | 37c | 61,513$22,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,630.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +102.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1200…6c6fbacked No | 63c | 61,513$38,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,630.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae29…d0c3backed No | 64c | 43,044$27,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,548.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…417fbacked Yes | 36c | 43,044$15,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,548.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c46…3779backed Yes | 40c | 40,213$16,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,127.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf920…0559backed No | 60c | 40,213$24,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,127.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1405…de5ebacked No | 62c | 27,622$17,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,125.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7da…63d7backed Yes | 38c | 27,612$10,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,119.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 15c | 2,331$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,983.89 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed Yes | 11c | 2,048$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,828.33 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d3…6a8bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,958$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,857.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +169.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4b…4382backed Yes | 9c | 1,621$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,474.87 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffdd…c06fbacked Yes | 68c | 1,351$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.05 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 41c | 1,050$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.88 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 27c | 1,000$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.14 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 8c | 964$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.88 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6f…340bbacked Yes | 71c | 884.78$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 21c | 771.63$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.16 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 14c | 700$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.12 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1277…13d8backed Yes | 67c | 657$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.26 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked Yes | 14c | 645.18$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.15 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e0…7ffabacked Yes | 10c | 626.01$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.71 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 18c | 615.75$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.98 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 5c | 556.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.68 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 64c | 553.66$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.92 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 540.58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.9 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 45c | 538.7$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.56 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed Yes | 11c | 524.84$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.24 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +38%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…65d2backed Yes | 14c | 500.14$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.43 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8149…30e0backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +717.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 8c | 440.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.31 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c1…3d36backed Yes | 9c | 410$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.9 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f0e…bdf1backed Yes | 70c | 400$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6358…f4b5backed No | 32c | 380.04$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.02 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -87%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…9dedbacked No | 61c | 342$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.13 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf8…8d46backed Yes | 7c | 301.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.6 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +68%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 14c | 290$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.98 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…18a1backed No | 32c | 275$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.27 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa407…49dfbacked Yes | 70c | 267$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…c899backed Yes | 70c | 266$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.04 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 7c | 260$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.6 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46d0…8d02backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…85fabacked Yes | 18c | 242.29$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.29 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 8c | 212$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.16 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 36c | 199.98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.19 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 68c | 199.04$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 8c | 193$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.79 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcb…14febacked Yes | 68c | 191.58$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.58 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4e…f3cabacked Yes | 70c | 184$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7364…d44ebacked No | 61c | 168$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 72cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb618…b1aabacked No | 60c | 167.61$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f30…c8dbbacked Yes | 70c | 164.42$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4467…e82abacked No | 32c | 155$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85dd…b936backed Yes | 66c | 152.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c5…41ebbacked No | 62c | 151$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38cd…a557backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.18 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa761…46c1backed Yes | 68c | 147.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1251…41c0backed Yes | 68c | 147.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf680…2c59backed Yes | 68c | 147.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec34…9bb2backed Yes | 70c | 142.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 9c | 140.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.92 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e0…0fedbacked No | 70c | 136.02$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…fb19backed Yes | 41c | 128.4$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +146.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb0…b432backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +150%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed No | 32c | 123.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 121.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.54 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc68…47bdbacked No | 61c | 121.31$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.52 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 69c | 121$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x807d…9189backed Yes | 9c | 120$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.54 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec4c…6994backed Yes | 14c | 119.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.32 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe10…95cbbacked Yes | 68c | 117$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7b76backed No | 63c | 113.67$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.35 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…920ebacked Yes | 51c | 107.61$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.46 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b0…f9a8backed No | 60c | 106$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.63 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8970…36b5backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbfc…b703backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67db…21adbacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.15 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 71c | 99.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…1765backed Yes | 68c | 98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…d811backed No | 32c | 92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1888…4eafbacked Yes | 69c | 90$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -52%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd79…0294backed Yes | 68c | 88.63$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +125.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x417d…aa35backed No | 32c | 87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b40…6ec9backed Yes | 72c | 86.75$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd938…362bbacked Yes | 69c | 86$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed No | 31c | 85.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 16c | 83.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.96 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…c91ebacked No | 65c | 82$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.59 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e18…1044backed Yes | 70c | 82$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8524…7d91backed No | 63c | 80.89$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 70cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 39c | 80$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14b1…7828backed No | 33c | 77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb199…db30backed No | 30c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…1bb8backed No | 31c | 74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c05…dafcbacked No | 31c | 74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd02d…17e8backed Yes | 65c | 73.52$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 between December and June? this page
- Will the number of federal employees decrease by 100,000-200,000 between December and June? No won
- Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more between December and June? No won
- Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between December and June? No won
- Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 between December and June? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.