Us Politics · resolved market
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more between December and June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x857097a67011bfcbca1f794193530841efa71fdb70394d32796ec433c6dcb76e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $440,849
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $433,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $440,849 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 190 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ca8…dc6dbacked No | 63c | 116,124$73,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,965.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2c…b3fbbacked Yes | 37c | 116,124$42,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,965.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +216.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 74c | 12,351$9,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,154.01 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 27c | 8,825$2,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,399.46 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46c7…c0f2backed Yes | 25c | 8,333$2,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,103.52 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 74c | 7,617$5,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,017.74 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7e…d8afbacked No | 72c | 3,669$2,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030.44 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03d3…6a8bbacked Yes | 19c | 3,606$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +169.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 28c | 3,277$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.48 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60c…a6a0backed Yes | 25c | 3,200$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.84 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…b5f7backed Yes | 29c | 3,075$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.19 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked Yes | 36c | 3,052$1,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,105.16 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed No | 60c | 2,500$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b90…a0c7backed Yes | 26c | 2,299$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.68 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked No | 78c | 2,173$1,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.39 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 102 | 11.8%12 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…07aabacked No | 63c | 1,793$1,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.24 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 74c | 1,775$1,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.09 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 27c | 1,606$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.22 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 67c | 1,601$1,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.42 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 68c | 1,579$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.95 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 28c | 1,482$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.81 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d0…8d02backed Yes | 7c | 1,454$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.39 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae43…8194backed Yes | 31c | 1,430$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.3 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…7f26backed No | 68c | 1,427$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.42 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes | 21c | 1,341$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.64 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 14c | 1,291$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.36 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb3…fc1abacked Yes | 17c | 1,288$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 1,220$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 71c | 1,069$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.83 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 38c | 1,062$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.44 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1581…6cadbacked Yes | 33c | 906.03$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…042fbacked Yes | 28c | 899.92$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.49 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked Yes | 25c | 785.1$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.78 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed No | 74c | 764.62$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.58 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 759.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…65d2backed Yes | 29c | 750$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.4 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 2c | 746.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…1aa4backed No | 75c | 700$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb66b…6bcbbacked Yes | 56c | 662.57$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38cd…a557backed No | 67c | 650$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.5 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa96f…9c14backed No | 49c | 612.01$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 33c | 604.08$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 3c | 600.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 26c | 600$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed No | 60c | 600$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.5 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23b9…1bb3backed Yes | 3c | 596$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c6…d8fabacked Yes | 34c | 594.49$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…05e9backed No | 70c | 580$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ed…1fd0backed Yes | 9c | 567.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 19c | 565.25$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.54 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 10c | 539$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.23 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…920ebacked Yes | 10c | 537.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.07 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…f7c0backed Yes | 32c | 500$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.45 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…0c91backed Yes | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3d…6ed4backed Yes | 31c | 490.58$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4957…1ca5backed Yes | 9c | 454$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb82…2d99backed No | 68c | 412.1$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.1 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 30c | 381.08$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.08 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e16…84d7backed Yes | 25c | 358.15$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.4 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 352.61$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.07 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 29c | 350.22$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.26 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 21c | 350.05$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Yes | 29c | 350$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d47…d9bfbacked Yes | 12c | 346.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e55…2b2abacked Yes | 24c | 330$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf38d…52a2backed Yes | 30c | 328.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 68c | 298.28$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.99 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc801…5789backed Yes | 24c | 291.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 25c | 290$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked Yes | 28c | 289.76$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.48 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 44c | 282.78$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.88 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…6d3fbacked Yes | 33c | 281$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.73 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 18c | 274$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed No | 75c | 274$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.74 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…c899backed Yes | 6c | 266$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcded…189abacked Yes | 34c | 260.42$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.69 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 10c | 258.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad3…b09dbacked Yes | 51c | 245.08$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d29…ed3ebacked No | 52c | 240.36$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fe…1779backed Yes | 42c | 228.37$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.17 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64c5…190fbacked Yes | 8c | 225$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…c0cdbacked No | 64c | 211.15$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.01 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b1…6dbebacked Yes | 49c | 202.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4b…4382backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked No | 70c | 200$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0696…d56abacked No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 194.95$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 28c | 180$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 74 | 28.4%21 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ce…23b2backed Yes | 8c | 179.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8970…36b5backed Yes | 29c | 178$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 68c | 175$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.75 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea33…28a3backed Yes | 29c | 174.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf8…8d46backed Yes | 29c | 170.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +68%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 21c | 169$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…046ebacked Yes | 8c | 167$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…1ee7backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -6.9wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 26c | 165$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x904d…a760backed Yes | 7c | 164$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 9c | 161.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more between December and June? this page
- Will the number of federal employees decrease by 100,000-200,000 between December and June? No won
- Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between December and June? No won
- Will the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 between December and June? Yes won
- Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 between December and June? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.