Us Politics · resolved market
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between December and June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfaa31639a6f82698a68098879769c8f808596c7443cdfe45239604b4b169b331
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,302
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,302 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bd7…bd45backed Yes | 49c | 27,606$13,637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,637.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…77f9backed No | 51c | 27,606$13,969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,637.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4b…4382backed Yes | 11c | 2,485$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.76 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed Yes | 4c | 2,457$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.85 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,667$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.75 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f38…dac6backed Yes | 7c | 1,446$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,202$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.04 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,010$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.9 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked Yes | 13c | 830.09$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.4 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 729.88$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.65 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 11c | 713.58$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.13 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked Yes | 3c | 704.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed Yes | 5c | 656.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 15c | 628.32$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.19 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 12c | 539$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.12 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c1…3d36backed Yes | 6c | 500$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9465…5305backed Yes | 47c | 430.84$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a89…71adbacked Yes | 9c | 410$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46d0…8d02backed Yes | 6c | 408.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f78…4c0bbacked Yes | 6c | 376$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6f…340bbacked Yes | 10c | 327.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9b…1591backed Yes | 6c | 315$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 13c | 290$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c12…7d21backed Yes | 6c | 289$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa407…49dfbacked Yes | 9c | 267$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…c899backed Yes | 8c | 266$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 14c | 260$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1277…13d8backed Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 9c | 244.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 6c | 242.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…c91ebacked No | 67c | 235.88$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.91 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 12c | 221.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…4e64backed Yes | 14c | 220$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab4…13b2backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 38cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8535…7e37backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…920ebacked Yes | 46c | 199.47$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.1 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcb…14febacked Yes | 6c | 191.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 16c | 190$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4e…f3cabacked Yes | 14c | 184$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 7c | 180.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38cd…a557backed Yes | 14c | 179.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 6c | 178$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 75c | 175.07$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked Yes | 11c | 172.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2173…5692backed Yes | 14c | 172$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 170$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 11c | 169$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2f…53edbacked Yes | 14c | 155$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 9c | 153.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 20c | 148.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 12c | 140.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…85fabacked Yes | 24c | 132.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 13c | 121$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x807d…9189backed Yes | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 10c | 115$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…a0babacked Yes | 10c | 114$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x145b…80c9backed Yes | 14c | 111.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8dd…db7ebacked Yes | 14c | 111$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c43…ba44backed Yes | 14c | 106$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c1…c0c4backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef5…ea80backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…1aa4backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbfc…b703backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cec…707abacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f70…6365backed Yes | 14c | 96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c81…f334backed Yes | 14c | 93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1888…4eafbacked Yes | 14c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -52%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 13c | 89.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb6…0d3abacked Yes | 14c | 89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…d4d6backed Yes | 14c | 87.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b86…53d7backed Yes | 49c | 85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c8…ca0abacked Yes | 13c | 84.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…0da0backed Yes | 14c | 77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadbd…7b30backed Yes | 14c | 73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c89…6220backed Yes | 31c | 70.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6a…4846backed No | 77c | 69.26$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 72cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61d1…e1dcbacked Yes | 32c | 66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +61%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3d…8322backed No | 71c | 59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf526…35b1backed No | 73c | 44.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6c…f3c2backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476a…2a22backed No | 56c | 38.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1446…939abacked No | 59c | 37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f71…c162backed Yes | 50c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe2b…0cc0backed Yes | 60c | 32.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfd…ca1bbacked Yes | 61c | 32.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ab…cde9backed Yes | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf5…bd72backed No | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f32…655abacked No | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe50…3a28backed Yes | 36c | 30.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +156.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff2d…80cfbacked No | 42c | 25.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02b0…ef28backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…82d3backed Yes | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4232…43cfbacked Yes | 58c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…bf05backed Yes | 58c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between December and June? this page
- Will the number of federal employees decrease by 100,000-200,000 between December and June? No won
- Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more between December and June? No won
- Will the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 between December and June? Yes won
- Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 between December and June? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.