Us Politics · resolved market
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 between December and June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc18befbc687c54cf0300f9e4af42e0c73347bc427583a6fa723f8366a313abd1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $152,926
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $132,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $152,926 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 187 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31fc…4e30backed Yes | 12c | 16,196$1,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,923.84 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 47c | 5,536$2,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,910.01 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes | 11c | 3,957$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.93 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 28c | 3,257$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.19 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed No | 38c | 3,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,860 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03d3…6a8bbacked No | 51c | 2,954$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,454.09 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +169.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 26c | 2,937$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.09 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7e…d8afbacked Yes | 51c | 2,613$1,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,341.89 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked Yes | 26c | 2,232$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.41 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 30c | 1,426$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.08 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 24c | 1,384$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.04 | 102 | 11.8%12 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38cd…a557backed No | 48c | 1,304$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.99 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad7b…63dabacked Yes | 7c | 1,161$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.01 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…1aa4backed Yes | 34c | 1,023$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.74 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 6c | 1,017$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.82 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked Yes | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 69c | 986.26$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.83 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked No | 74c | 901.6$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.6 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed Yes | 8c | 740.65$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.46 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked No | 55c | 700$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.83 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked Yes | 15c | 649.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…d359backed Yes | 50c | 607.67$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…3ec7backed No | 80c | 593.09$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 23c | 590.25$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.76 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4c…d6b4backed Yes | 6c | 552$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 9c | 539$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae43…8194backed No | 64c | 470.18$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.27 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 22c | 455.49$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked Yes | 27c | 450$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.5 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa0…488bbacked No | 66c | 425.76$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1581…6cadbacked Yes | 20c | 345.87$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.27 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 4c | 341.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 7c | 329.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c12…2b11backed Yes | 26c | 323.26$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 31c | 314.5$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18d…b98fbacked Yes | 7c | 311.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked Yes | 7c | 310.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 48c | 303.11$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.25 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 10c | 301.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 33c | 292.14$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.73 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 15c | 286.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ea…6cebbacked Yes | 5c | 284$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked Yes | 44c | 283.49$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.13 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2069…c7cfbacked Yes | 6c | 278.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +115.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa283…9c9cbacked Yes | 38c | 269.78$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.95 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 48cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…c899backed Yes | 4c | 266$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecb…9a34backed Yes | 6c | 261$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…7f26backed No | 74c | 239.78$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.51 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x419a…bba7backed Yes | 6c | 237$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x798e…4fd7backed Yes | 6c | 235$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…e6c9backed Yes | 43c | 222.92$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.92 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06cf…8360backed Yes | 6c | 216$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 18c | 215$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2629…15e1backed Yes | 6c | 215$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed No | 63c | 210.52$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.84 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97c1…3d36backed Yes | 25c | 205.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0705…9dfcbacked Yes | 14c | 204.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…920ebacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe478…78eabacked Yes | 6c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8feb…8908backed Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…0d5ebacked Yes | 31c | 199.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a96…903abacked Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcb…14febacked Yes | 7c | 191$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc52b…675abacked Yes | 6c | 175$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…dc41backed Yes | 14c | 174.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 168$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 34c | 166.07$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.47 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…7d02backed Yes | 6c | 165$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe057…24c2backed Yes | 6c | 164$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07a6…adc5backed Yes | 9c | 158$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eab…12efbacked Yes | 9c | 155$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3d…6ed4backed Yes | 55c | 150.91$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fde…118dbacked Yes | 8c | 146$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3c…5eb9backed Yes | 9c | 144$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 32c | 140.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…05e9backed No | 79c | 140$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 8c | 132.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…fdb6backed Yes | 10c | 132$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8970…36b5backed Yes | 8c | 129.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f83…d2e4backed Yes | 13c | 127$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 73c | 127$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 55c | 121.78$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.81 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab4…13b2backed No | 77c | 120$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 38cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x807d…9189backed Yes | 34c | 120$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 72c | 110$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd94…b271backed No | 79c | 110$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc76…f715backed Yes | 13c | 106$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0c…99adbacked Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c1…c0c4backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…ebf8backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb51…fbe3backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 between December and June? this page
- Will the number of federal employees decrease by 100,000-200,000 between December and June? No won
- Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more between December and June? No won
- Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between December and June? No won
- Will the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 between December and June? Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.