AI · resolved market
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60279053b72e1e5299f66a6efd4f81663d0de5bedfc6bba41d6bbd0a9dbc9d1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,476,743
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,552,480
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,476,743 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 687 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 3c | 189,074$6,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,209.42 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 129,462$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.88 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…2eb5backed Yes | 5c | 105,990$4,903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,903 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 3c | 56,981$1,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,453.89 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 4c | 54,450$2,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,004.56 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 53,407$1,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,696.09 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes | 1c | 50,002$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.17 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 5c | 48,097$2,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,580.64 | 67 | 16.4%11 W · 56 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb22…f95bbacked No | 80c | 45,517$36,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,103.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a5…0c5bbacked Yes | 20c | 45,517$9,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,103.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 8c | 35,886$2,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,829.61 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -79%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a99…5309backed Yes | 2c | 34,998$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…29ccbacked Yes | 2c | 28,292$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.74 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 3c | 27,272$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.53 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 9c | 25,432$2,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,207.65 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf52…3b7dbacked Yes | 3c | 24,879$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed Yes | 20c | 24,041$4,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,841.38 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00e1…b679backed Yes | 3c | 20,532$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.92 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03a0…51c3backed Yes | 2c | 20,046$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 3c | 19,777$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.33 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b73…7c2fbacked Yes | 18c | 16,732$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6453…5553backed Yes | 15c | 16,470$2,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,483.97 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 38cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 4c | 15,355$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.02 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -93.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…9a2fbacked Yes | 8c | 14,462$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c5…dbcfbacked Yes | 5c | 14,100$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…2ef2backed Yes | 4c | 13,516$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ae…4cf1backed Yes | 3c | 12,322$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.41 | 53 | 1.9%1 W · 52 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 1c | 12,250$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 4c | 11,707$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.89 | 149 | 1.3%2 W · 147 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x724d…8deabacked Yes | 2c | 11,663$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.05 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 11,408$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.53 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 1c | 11,365$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.35 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed Yes | 8c | 11,256$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.36 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 8c | 11,227$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.1 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ad…9a6dbacked Yes | 5c | 10,996$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbca…3b1ebacked Yes | 4c | 10,737$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 10,252$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.25 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…e84cbacked Yes | 5c | 9,948$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf50a…efafbacked Yes | 5c | 9,673$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 3c | 8,872$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.14 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 8,391$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.23 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…343ebacked Yes | 9c | 8,337$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x674f…df74backed Yes | 17c | 8,085$1,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,349.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 2c | 8,033$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.11 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee75…88dabacked Yes | 21c | 7,984$1,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,713.13 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 3c | 7,757$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.33 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7717…fa4dbacked Yes | 4c | 7,272$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.21 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3f…5f53backed Yes | 3c | 7,176$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.43 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 2c | 7,030$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.1 | 72 | 4.2%3 W · 69 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 3c | 6,983$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.58 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8df…abd7backed Yes | 2c | 6,412$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 3cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc22c…bfc7backed Yes | 4c | 6,352$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.26 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 6,214$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.3 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8026…2f99backed Yes | 2c | 6,206$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.22 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…709dbacked Yes | 2c | 6,188$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.66 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x663a…5c51backed Yes | 6c | 5,785$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d83…0bb9backed Yes | 10c | 5,783$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.27 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1605…43bfbacked Yes | 4c | 5,629$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.79 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1522…607ebacked Yes | 3c | 5,588$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cee…f7ebbacked Yes | 6c | 5,538$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa56d…82e7backed Yes | 5c | 5,451$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.31 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc39e…97d9backed Yes | 5c | 5,394$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 2c | 5,379$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.96 | 87 | 0%0 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 2c | 5,312$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.1 | 85 | 0%0 W · 85 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06df…4e7abacked Yes | 13c | 5,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.76 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe02c…5d08backed Yes | 4c | 4,917$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.57 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b9…7d4bbacked Yes | 3c | 4,590$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1b…a11dbacked Yes | 4c | 4,550$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.65 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 4,514$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 3cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5684…7874backed Yes | 3c | 4,449$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…b245backed Yes | 3c | 4,444$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.43 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 2c | 4,444$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.77 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62a…c2c7backed Yes | 2c | 4,432$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fe…2fa0backed Yes | 2c | 4,368$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8486…28e4backed Yes | 2c | 4,336$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 3c | 4,326$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.95 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 17c | 4,179$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.42 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c45…31c4backed Yes | 5c | 4,098$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 6c | 4,015$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.35 | 66 | 27.3%18 W · 48 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 2c | 4,008$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.92 | 52 | 1.9%1 W · 51 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 2c | 3,999$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.98 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c5…4109backed Yes | 9c | 3,956$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.06 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 2c | 3,829$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 3c | 3,805$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.44 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…cb9bbacked Yes | 20c | 3,757$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5aa…75fcbacked Yes | 5c | 3,730$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 3c | 3,643$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.91 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -81%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63d6…9228backed Yes | 4c | 3,610$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73ec…f5bbbacked Yes | 10c | 3,560$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.15 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +9.0wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…0299backed Yes | 4c | 3,559$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.99 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x960a…2d9bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,535$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc45…6805backed Yes | 3c | 3,458$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.58 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 3,369$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.26 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e5…582dbacked Yes | 21c | 3,366$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,335$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.71 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd466…0b4fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,317$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33f4…490fbacked Yes | 30c | 3,295$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed Yes | 26c | 3,240$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…7e6cbacked Yes | 21c | 3,172$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…4518backed Yes | 2c | 3,143$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?Yes won
- Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Microsoft have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Moonshot have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Tencent have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Z.ai have the top AI model on December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.