AI · resolved market
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6852cb4eaf23193e9dc073471131102017ba31ac9571f5ee8a12c4cc1800d7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,069,280
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,219,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,069,280 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 205 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 208,635$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.76 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 0c | 139,780$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.94 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c5…4109backed Yes | 1c | 102,084$1,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,135.92 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 79,999$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 54,490$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.73 | 149 | 1.3%2 W · 147 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67c4…2272backed Yes | 1c | 43,127$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6207…5259backed Yes | 0c | 41,989$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeee…8aeebacked Yes | 1c | 41,953$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb7…3d63backed Yes | 1c | 38,240$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 1c | 23,898$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 0c | 22,307$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…bfffbacked Yes | 0c | 15,830$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb0…cfdabacked Yes | 0c | 15,830$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed Yes | 1c | 15,637$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.87 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ae…4cf1backed Yes | 0c | 13,978$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.25 | 53 | 1.9%1 W · 52 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…9e88backed Yes | 1c | 13,811$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.38 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 1c | 13,621$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.02 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -93.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 13,071$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 75 | 10.7%8 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…b789backed Yes | 1c | 12,785$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.17 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +77%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7038…4838backed Yes | 1c | 12,783$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 0c | 12,448$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 1c | 11,911$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.96 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0138…044bbacked Yes | 0c | 11,719$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.51 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…21fcbacked Yes | 0c | 11,295$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f55…d278backed Yes | 0c | 11,295$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,944$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 101 | 0%0 W · 101 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 9,713$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.86 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1809…4eb7backed Yes | 10c | 9,519$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.26 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e5…9646backed Yes | 0c | 9,134$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5c…1a7abacked Yes | 4c | 9,131$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 8,948$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.48 | 105 | 1.9%2 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 1c | 8,810$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…440abacked Yes | 2c | 8,159$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.26 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9e…190bbacked Yes | 0c | 7,800$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 7,231$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.48 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 1c | 7,145$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.27 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e60…b913backed Yes | 1c | 7,024$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3c…434fbacked Yes | 1c | 6,902$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.13 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…a93fbacked Yes | 1c | 6,650$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.85 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c23…0266backed Yes | 1c | 6,516$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf63…c242backed Yes | 0c | 6,430$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes | 1c | 6,166$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…7777backed Yes | 1c | 5,960$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 0c | 5,742$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 5,458$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.64 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c00…cddfbacked Yes | 0c | 5,457$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa927…3f23backed Yes | 1c | 5,441$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 2c | 5,365$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.11 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,353$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 82 | 1.2%1 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac2c…7774backed Yes | 0c | 5,176$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9746…c31cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91b3…40d9backed Yes | 0c | 4,750$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a14…3ad7backed Yes | 1c | 4,735$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48c6…d483backed Yes | 1c | 4,527$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c4…89bdbacked Yes | 1c | 4,469$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 1c | 4,457$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.66 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd00f…d691backed Yes | 3c | 4,447$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51a3…1f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,261$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa60a…da21backed Yes | 2c | 4,218$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c0…2510backed Yes | 2c | 4,074$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x353d…3365backed Yes | 0c | 3,547$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd89b…7945backed Yes | 9c | 3,506$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…505abacked Yes | 0c | 3,400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7958…f2eebacked Yes | 0c | 3,279$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce32…5757backed Yes | 1c | 3,252$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa8…f6bfbacked Yes | 1c | 3,169$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…1efebacked Yes | 2c | 3,123$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 5c | 3,097$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.6 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f5…0a3bbacked Yes | 2c | 3,037$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb53…edd1backed Yes | 1c | 3,010$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,009$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f0…583dbacked Yes | 0c | 3,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8a…45e7backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8376…feb4backed Yes | 0c | 3,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 0c | 3,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -91.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x075b…9a8cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56bb…f9a0backed Yes | 1c | 2,961$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x612a…fee9backed Yes | 2c | 2,823$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ac…6b83backed Yes | 4c | 2,793$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,684$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.71 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0347…5d1ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,669$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 2,570$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.08 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…4a14backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4de…cb5cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -46%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f6d…ede4backed Yes | 0c | 2,466$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…7a52backed Yes | 1c | 2,344$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…81dbbacked Yes | 4c | 2,217$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.69 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6736…058cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,208$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x380b…d62dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,072$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c15…72ffbacked Yes | 2c | 2,066$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 3c | 2,063$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.44 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -49%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2f…31aebacked Yes | 2c | 2,062$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7674…972cbacked Yes | 0c | 2,037$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2723…6f19backed Yes | 1c | 2,019$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7817…9768backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x187a…87ccbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e04…83ffbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b8…f08dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?Yes won
- Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Microsoft have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Moonshot have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Tencent have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Z.ai have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.