AI · resolved market
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8309a3b9eb96171c215153b8dccc3bcbcfa84d709f10d9319f5cb8874ff2c728
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,794,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,267,719
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,794,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 200 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 337,095$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.99 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 90,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 75,099$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.2 | 149 | 1.3%2 W · 147 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 0c | 71,450$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.57 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf789…c4ccbacked Yes | 1c | 51,576$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 0c | 43,660$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…8393backed Yes | 0c | 19,707$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb7…44f2backed Yes | 2c | 19,269$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.19 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69cd…fa93backed Yes | 0c | 18,940$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20fc…9188backed Yes | 0c | 18,888$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes | 0c | 17,273$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeec9…49debacked Yes | 0c | 13,725$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…b789backed Yes | 1c | 13,404$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.06 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +77%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 101 | 0%0 W · 101 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…9e88backed Yes | 3c | 11,499$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.44 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf24d…6a5fbacked Yes | 1c | 11,134$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -87%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…a93fbacked Yes | 1c | 10,663$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.3 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d5…697abacked Yes | 1c | 10,099$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1809…4eb7backed Yes | 5c | 10,021$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.63 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b6…ad06backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x460b…5fcabacked Yes | 2c | 9,629$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.11 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 0c | 9,414$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -93.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 1c | 8,174$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +478.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3c…434fbacked Yes | 1c | 7,653$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 7,483$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.03 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 7,313$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 82 | 1.2%1 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 1c | 7,044$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.43 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0347…5d1ebacked Yes | 1c | 6,860$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 5c | 6,760$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.45 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29cd…cbc5backed Yes | 2c | 5,639$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.32 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 5,411$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.91 | 105 | 1.9%2 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 1c | 5,091$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda8…790ebacked Yes | 3c | 5,000$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e74…54e7backed Yes | 1c | 4,967$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed Yes | 2c | 4,665$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.77 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…d6d2backed Yes | 2c | 4,332$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.32 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb53…edd1backed Yes | 1c | 4,100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 4c | 4,000$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.31 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0571…fff2backed Yes | 4c | 3,845$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…81dbbacked Yes | 3c | 3,610$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.54 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7c…cd98backed Yes | 1c | 3,544$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c0…28f4backed Yes | 3c | 3,444$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.78 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2417…5d1ebacked Yes | 3c | 3,344$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -82%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc11…292dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,341$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes | 3c | 3,325$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.9 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…2b75backed Yes | 3c | 3,245$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa60a…da21backed Yes | 5c | 3,234$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09f1…9b79backed Yes | 6c | 3,171$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 3c | 3,153$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.18 | 99 | 15.2%15 W · 84 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,833$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.53 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 5c | 2,724$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa946…fa19backed Yes | 7c | 2,539$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.71 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 2,414$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.51 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce32…5757backed Yes | 1c | 2,318$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Yes | 1c | 2,222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x132b…be94backed Yes | 13c | 2,208$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.99 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x820b…f7f4backed Yes | 6c | 2,199$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.84 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +111.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1766…5705backed Yes | 0c | 2,154$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f2…c208backed Yes | 3c | 2,104$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.7 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaae…907ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,070$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4db1…a07cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x152c…df80backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdde…556ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,850$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 2c | 1,841$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -49%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 1,821$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed Yes | 5c | 1,700$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.7 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes | 2c | 1,684$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6726…45e5backed Yes | 6c | 1,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5c…1a7abacked Yes | 2c | 1,631$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9b…253fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,584$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa609…8141backed Yes | 1c | 1,550$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b5…8b70backed Yes | 5c | 1,538$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…45e5backed Yes | 1c | 1,510$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0706…6ffebacked Yes | 2c | 1,474$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,416$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36fd…c834backed Yes | 6c | 1,344$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.6 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5410…8976backed Yes | 8c | 1,305$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6623…3705backed Yes | 1c | 1,223$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9aa…e347backed Yes | 5c | 1,223$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc91f…e850backed Yes | 2c | 1,197$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed Yes | 2c | 1,177$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x679c…f8ddbacked Yes | 6c | 1,136$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.11 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbb…45b1backed Yes | 6c | 1,125$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf48…c1b8backed Yes | 1c | 1,121$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x136a…319dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,093$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcebc…47bebacked Yes | 7c | 1,025$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51d8…a269backed Yes | 3c | 1,013$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…29d1backed Yes | 4c | 891$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 4c | 850.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x965f…f5c9backed Yes | 5c | 779.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 779.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 5c | 776.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ff…d2f4backed Yes | 1c | 770$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c15…72ffbacked Yes | 7c | 735.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…dcd8backed Yes | 3c | 700.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf7…779bbacked Yes | 3c | 699.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…554fbacked Yes | 5c | 682$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a14…3ad7backed Yes | 3c | 662.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dab…9ea8backed Yes | 5c | 655$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff46…4e8abacked Yes | 8c | 648.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?Yes won
- Will Microsoft have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Moonshot have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Tencent have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Z.ai have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.