TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,794,863
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,267,719

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,794,863 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 200 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c337,095$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.992920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c90,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140220%0 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c75,099$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.21491.3%2 W · 147 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-83.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes0c71,450$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.576291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf789…c4ccbacked Yes1c51,576$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674140%0 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes0c43,660$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6619011.6%22 W · 168 L-0.4wins0.00per pick12cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a15…8393backed Yes0c19,707$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bb7…44f2backed Yes2c19,269$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.192133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-35.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69cd…fa93backed Yes0c18,940$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20fc…9188backed Yes0c18,888$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes0c17,273$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.27270%0 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeec9…49debacked Yes0c13,725$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8b5…b789backed Yes1c13,404$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.065817.2%10 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+77%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121010%0 W · 101 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34a9…9e88backed Yes3c11,499$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.441711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-82.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf24d…6a5fbacked Yes1c11,134$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-87%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x66ac…a93fbacked Yes1c10,663$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.3214.8%1 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16d5…697abacked Yes1c10,099$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1809…4eb7backed Yes5c10,021$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.632544%11 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-37.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b6…ad06backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x460b…5fcabacked Yes2c9,629$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.11771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick43cpaid+41.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes0c9,414$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.49474.3%2 W · 45 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-93.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed Yes1c8,174$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.342317.4%4 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+478.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f3c…434fbacked Yes1c7,653$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10070%0 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes3c7,483$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.0315615.4%24 W · 132 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-79.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c7,313$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.91821.2%1 W · 81 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes1c7,044$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.43100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0347…5d1ebacked Yes1c6,860$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.36120%0 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes5c6,760$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.4511030.9%34 W · 76 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x29cd…cbc5backed Yes2c5,639$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.321612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-76.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes2c5,411$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.911051.9%2 W · 103 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-81.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes1c5,091$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.378543.5%37 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbda8…790ebacked Yes3c5,000$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e74…54e7backed Yes1c4,967$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.942313%3 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-57.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6518…f798backed Yes2c4,665$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.772917.2%5 W · 24 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-66%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8d2…d6d2backed Yes2c4,332$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.322638.5%10 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick31cpaid-6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb53…edd1backed Yes1c4,100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.65319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick13cpaid+37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes4c4,000$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.312913.8%4 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-74.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0571…fff2backed Yes4c3,845$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.87425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-58.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xce1d…81dbbacked Yes3c3,610$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.545221.2%11 W · 41 L+0.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-63.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b7c…cd98backed Yes1c3,544$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14c0…28f4backed Yes3c3,444$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.781040%4 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-24.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2417…5d1ebacked Yes3c3,344$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-82%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc11…292dbacked Yes2c3,341$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3540%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes3c3,325$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.93030%9 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick23cpaid-12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1d7…2b75backed Yes3c3,245$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa60a…da21backed Yes5c3,234$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1651127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-47.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09f1…9b79backed Yes6c3,171$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x735d…78cfbacked Yes3c3,153$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.189915.2%15 W · 84 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c2,833$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.531,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes5c2,724$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1486829.4%20 W · 48 L+6.0wins+0.09per pick21cpaid-13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa946…fa19backed Yes7c2,539$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.711030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-52.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes3c2,414$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.512110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xce32…5757backed Yes1c2,318$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc1…ffeebacked Yes1c2,222$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x132b…be94backed Yes13c2,208$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.991435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-41.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x820b…f7f4backed Yes6c2,199$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.841145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+111.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1766…5705backed Yes0c2,154$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1070%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3f2…c208backed Yes3c2,104$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.71323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfaae…907ebacked Yes5c2,070$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4db1…a07cbacked Yes5c2,000$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x152c…df80backed Yes5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdde…556ebacked Yes8c1,850$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.1230%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf031…89b5backed Yes2c1,841$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.011520%3 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-49%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes3c1,821$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2757426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x832b…3ae1backed Yes5c1,700$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.73050%15 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-24.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes2c1,684$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.621921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid+61.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6726…45e5backed Yes6c1,667$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd5c…1a7abacked Yes2c1,631$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb9b…253fbacked Yes6c1,584$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa609…8141backed Yes1c1,550$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3b5…8b70backed Yes5c1,538$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.62520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-66.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb906…45e5backed Yes1c1,510$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0706…6ffebacked Yes2c1,474$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.56812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-84.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes4c1,416$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.76714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-63.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36fd…c834backed Yes6c1,344$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.62326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-51%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5410…8976backed Yes8c1,305$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6623…3705backed Yes1c1,223$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9aa…e347backed Yes5c1,223$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60190%0 W · 19 L-3.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc91f…e850backed Yes2c1,197$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa19…fb67backed Yes2c1,177$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.832015%3 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-60.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x679c…f8ddbacked Yes6c1,136$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.111643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-36.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fbb…45b1backed Yes6c1,125$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.76250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf48…c1b8backed Yes1c1,121$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x136a…319dbacked Yes5c1,093$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcebc…47bebacked Yes7c1,025$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51d8…a269backed Yes3c1,013$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b50…29d1backed Yes4c891$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes4c850.75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-60.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x965f…f5c9backed Yes5c779.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes3c779.64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0930127.2%82 W · 219 L+1.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed Yes5c776.48$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.013010%3 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid+41%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02ff…d2f4backed Yes1c770$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.01633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c15…72ffbacked Yes7c735.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5080%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x44a3…dcd8backed Yes3c700.01$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5cf7…779bbacked Yes3c699.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-42.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f2…554fbacked Yes5c682$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.83922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-70.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a14…3ad7backed Yes3c662.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20190%0 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0dab…9ea8backed Yes5c655$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff46…4e8abacked Yes8c648.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.