AI · resolved market
Will Microsoft have the top AI model on December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2b177d6267194487880857175f9876fb2d352188f681dfe8bb732a665512305
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,697,440
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $656,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,697,440 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 219 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 251,605$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.27 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes | 0c | 83,180$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.18 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 78,000$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 149 | 1.3%2 W · 147 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…b789backed Yes | 0c | 65,703$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.55 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +77%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x776f…a27dbacked Yes | 0c | 61,648$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd566…b837backed Yes | 0c | 58,745$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5813…104cbacked Yes | 0c | 58,103$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056b…7d83backed Yes | 0c | 58,003$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ee…afd5backed Yes | 0c | 57,771$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f61…6fcabacked Yes | 0c | 57,473$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc8…e568backed Yes | 0c | 56,849$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb15d…c871backed Yes | 0c | 56,792$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f9…6afabacked Yes | 0c | 56,506$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeab…4081backed Yes | 0c | 56,057$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a6…fc1cbacked Yes | 0c | 55,903$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…d864backed Yes | 0c | 55,451$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc171…5d33backed Yes | 0c | 54,906$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ea…fd4bbacked Yes | 0c | 54,893$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2aa…a7d1backed Yes | 0c | 54,826$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea1b…9febbacked Yes | 0c | 54,550$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa982…ad75backed Yes | 0c | 54,337$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…2129backed Yes | 0c | 53,946$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…e50abacked Yes | 0c | 53,566$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb508…6751backed Yes | 0c | 53,371$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b33…b546backed Yes | 0c | 53,292$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbef7…a8c5backed Yes | 0c | 53,148$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f0…c0f3backed Yes | 0c | 53,135$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0237…9292backed Yes | 0c | 52,972$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12c2…04c3backed Yes | 0c | 52,744$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3947…d4eebacked Yes | 0c | 51,822$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7981…a258backed Yes | 0c | 48,594$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f62…0ab9backed Yes | 0c | 48,563$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41bc…6ec2backed Yes | 0c | 47,020$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeed2…9e14backed Yes | 0c | 46,961$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f2…4878backed Yes | 0c | 46,863$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f52…43debacked Yes | 0c | 46,798$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67ff…600ebacked Yes | 0c | 46,747$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9467…87dabacked Yes | 0c | 46,744$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb566…008bbacked Yes | 0c | 46,633$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf1…5c7abacked Yes | 0c | 46,489$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22ba…d982backed Yes | 0c | 46,417$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8a…61f3backed Yes | 0c | 46,294$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bc…a9bfbacked Yes | 0c | 46,141$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9b…34ebbacked Yes | 0c | 46,079$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08e6…7d11backed Yes | 0c | 46,013$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb188…7a77backed Yes | 0c | 45,929$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.93 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe46d…b481backed Yes | 0c | 45,789$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1712…5d11backed Yes | 0c | 45,728$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36d2…1c25backed Yes | 0c | 45,104$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x750f…f2c5backed Yes | 0c | 44,919$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f09…d9f0backed Yes | 0c | 44,809$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf87e…abcabacked Yes | 0c | 44,677$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c1…a7b3backed Yes | 0c | 44,620$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2df1…0d63backed Yes | 0c | 44,559$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc16c…053abacked Yes | 0c | 44,457$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd861…1df8backed Yes | 0c | 44,309$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.31 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25a0…6fe9backed Yes | 0c | 44,248$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1a…0b58backed Yes | 0c | 44,147$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5d…d948backed Yes | 0c | 44,059$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77a7…5acabacked Yes | 0c | 43,975$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeead…9aeabacked Yes | 0c | 43,827$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac7…74f4backed Yes | 0c | 43,679$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x564c…949abacked Yes | 0c | 43,607$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2153…ab8cbacked Yes | 0c | 43,472$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2660…c2e6backed Yes | 0c | 43,374$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fe…27d1backed Yes | 0c | 43,281$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ec…f39abacked Yes | 0c | 43,148$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94f9…70b6backed Yes | 0c | 43,069$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x535d…efa6backed Yes | 0c | 42,967$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3006…6f28backed Yes | 0c | 41,715$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c00…94d2backed Yes | 0c | 41,622$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x284d…5d55backed Yes | 0c | 41,565$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea6…f151backed Yes | 0c | 41,544$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 0c | 41,232$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…57a7backed Yes | 0c | 40,736$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f4…f867backed Yes | 0c | 40,717$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff47…6f2abacked Yes | 0c | 40,679$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2726…6329backed Yes | 0c | 40,660$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f9f…9670backed Yes | 0c | 40,641$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x115d…f608backed Yes | 0c | 40,382$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93f0…8598backed Yes | 0c | 40,183$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…cc12backed Yes | 0c | 40,067$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d52…a725backed Yes | 0c | 40,021$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fb…37a3backed Yes | 0c | 39,976$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc36c…168cbacked Yes | 0c | 39,883$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x858e…10c7backed Yes | 0c | 39,779$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd9…a663backed Yes | 0c | 39,671$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa7…6151backed Yes | 0c | 39,584$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…e654backed Yes | 0c | 39,568$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81a1…b745backed Yes | 0c | 38,652$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…4fd5backed Yes | 0c | 38,597$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5551…82ccbacked Yes | 0c | 38,513$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb442…2f7ebacked Yes | 0c | 38,419$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfe…1b3abacked Yes | 0c | 38,036$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…c44bbacked Yes | 0c | 38,002$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370c…1c4fbacked Yes | 0c | 37,904$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…180ebacked Yes | 0c | 37,849$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e49…a4babacked Yes | 0c | 37,786$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd26b…0c5fbacked Yes | 0c | 37,721$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7406…cf2abacked Yes | 0c | 37,608$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft have the top AI model on December 31?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?Yes won
- Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Moonshot have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Tencent have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Z.ai have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.