AI · resolved market
Will Moonshot have the top AI model on December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4928bece364d2def95c920459ab1fa54f449f99f33b0dbc93d6a84f80d9c9669
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,728,389
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $868,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,728,389 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 417,496$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeadf…06c7backed Yes | 0c | 63,384$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 0c | 62,702$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.62 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 61,950$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.95 | 149 | 1.3%2 W · 147 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 0c | 50,903$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba51…ff35backed Yes | 0c | 41,430$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf3…45a3backed Yes | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 39,776$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 101 | 0%0 W · 101 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…b789backed Yes | 0c | 37,838$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.68 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +77%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9026…3d49backed Yes | 0c | 35,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0848…690cbacked Yes | 0c | 25,159$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2028…c794backed Yes | 0c | 24,981$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes | 0c | 24,217$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb577…47d2backed Yes | 0c | 23,333$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5740…e9e8backed Yes | 0c | 21,120$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7152…faacbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d3…d10dbacked Yes | 0c | 19,883$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…6756backed Yes | 0c | 19,752$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9f…22eabacked Yes | 0c | 19,193$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed Yes | 0c | 16,416$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1142…9ae3backed Yes | 0c | 15,137$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0e…3e9bbacked Yes | 0c | 14,663$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 0c | 12,776$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x861e…2048backed Yes | 0c | 12,541$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ae…4cf1backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 53 | 1.9%1 W · 52 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,996$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 82 | 1.2%1 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…60afbacked Yes | 1c | 10,495$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.91 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1916…b8edbacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 0c | 9,500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -93.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x752a…3b1dbacked Yes | 0c | 8,169$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4561…2d14backed Yes | 0c | 7,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ddd…2036backed Yes | 0c | 6,500$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…f7c0backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0e…fccdbacked Yes | 0c | 5,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 5,478$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8af9…c3e8backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5542…ce16backed Yes | 0c | 3,888$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…c79abacked Yes | 0c | 2,680$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ad…d823backed Yes | 2c | 2,434$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.23 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…e409backed Yes | 0c | 2,222$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d7…3d46backed Yes | 1c | 2,125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98bf…f6d2backed Yes | 2c | 1,984$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ac…6b83backed Yes | 1c | 1,968$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4135…a576backed Yes | 2c | 1,804$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc65…6650backed Yes | 1c | 1,417$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf9…3cb1backed Yes | 1c | 1,299$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Moonshot have the top AI model on December 31?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?Yes won
- Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Microsoft have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Tencent have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Z.ai have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.