Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5936d29808af5914a5c8d6abae7565b3519d9d4b2ecf215a9aa7b8a6fe25f71b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $191,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $165,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $191,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd8a…23debacked Yes | 1c | 9,088$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc683…3d82backed Yes | 1c | 7,030$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5218backed Yes | 2c | 3,456$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c12…226bbacked Yes | 2c | 3,002$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,649$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.74 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3917…7adbbacked Yes | 11c | 2,415$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cf…a0b7backed Yes | 1c | 1,920$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…320cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,792$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1b…9e26backed Yes | 2c | 1,792$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aed…b8bfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,664$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa909…6badbacked Yes | 2c | 1,664$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…00f6backed Yes | 5c | 1,633$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…8deebacked Yes | 1c | 1,536$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…d9edbacked Yes | 2c | 1,408$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…fd9cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,280$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5db…d774backed Yes | 2c | 1,280$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdac…547abacked Yes | 1c | 1,280$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7e…71b7backed Yes | 1c | 1,280$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…6b61backed Yes | 2c | 1,152$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 4c | 1,127$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…245dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,024$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68da…ee52backed Yes | 8c | 900$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6225…5eb6backed Yes | 1c | 896$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…aa4cbacked Yes | 2c | 896$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1058…d8aebacked Yes | 4c | 844$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…394cbacked Yes | 5c | 807$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6da3…9b15backed Yes | 7c | 798.39$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda99…ae42backed Yes | 4c | 687$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf780…2b75backed Yes | 4c | 678$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…483ebacked Yes | 4c | 642.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f49…af16backed Yes | 2c | 640$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa09e…c433backed Yes | 5c | 619$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f54…ba15backed Yes | 4c | 612$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5636…871dbacked Yes | 4c | 566$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 539.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4bf…9f10backed Yes | 4c | 538$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x592c…25e0backed Yes | 4c | 524$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c0…7de5backed Yes | 4c | 473$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 4c | 467.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d05…5f63backed Yes | 4c | 422$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c96…1a7ebacked Yes | 4c | 417$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x811b…b33bbacked Yes | 4c | 414$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd3…7c8cbacked Yes | 4c | 407$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd09d…82c3backed Yes | 4c | 407$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e96…d3d1backed Yes | 4c | 387$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b52…1da3backed Yes | 4c | 384$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eaa…ce6ebacked Yes | 5c | 371$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60b…b65abacked Yes | 3c | 369$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcb…4da0backed Yes | 4c | 365$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…ca40backed Yes | 5c | 364$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c3…b259backed Yes | 4c | 356$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x378d…2eb6backed Yes | 4c | 353$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c3…285ebacked Yes | 4c | 341$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67b0…6a3abacked Yes | 4c | 321$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1910…1613backed Yes | 4c | 319$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b1…307ebacked Yes | 4c | 305$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c7…4d19backed Yes | 4c | 301$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd290…2b64backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9a…a6cebacked Yes | 4c | 285$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x994d…50fdbacked Yes | 4c | 276$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12c9…c852backed Yes | 4c | 265$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35ff…2fa9backed Yes | 5c | 215$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x381a…b01cbacked Yes | 5c | 213$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 7c | 145.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025?this page
- Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2025?No won
- Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2025?No won
- Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2025?No won
- Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.