Weather · resolved market
Will the Palisades fire be 50% contained by January 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5fca6ceb941da607d42a67c65084818983c3737e832bee4b87805bc09845c16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,162
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe278…b608backed Yes | 57c | 5,897$3,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,524.86 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 65c | 5,337$3,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,868.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddca…3148backed No | 42c | 4,423$1,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,837.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x761a…0e8ebacked No | 57c | 3,845$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed No | 12c | 3,500$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed Yes | 59c | 2,529$1,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.1 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 41c | 2,038$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,199.29 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30b9…9b83backed No | 52c | 2,022$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 45c | 1,797$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked No | 32c | 1,771$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.64 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 77c | 1,558$1,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccab…cb62backed Yes | 32c | 1,550$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5300…f79dbacked No | 53c | 1,521$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x706f…605fbacked No | 7c | 1,365$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa726…4646backed No | 75c | 1,342$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed No | 21c | 1,279$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 9c | 1,260$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…2e2ebacked Yes | 22c | 1,134$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 10c | 1,070$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.27 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 51c | 919.14$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.31 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7528…18f9backed No | 45c | 888.89$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8864…3ed5backed No | 66c | 871.18$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.82 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 65c | 800$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20e…5998backed No | 12c | 739.11$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc490…6507backed No | 14c | 721.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 57c | 690.71$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.47 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…ef6fbacked No | 37c | 600$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb48…8ae8backed No | 20c | 497.12$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed Yes | 48c | 409.82$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3b…e2f5backed No | 59c | 370.47$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.66 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 33c | 347.07$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.13 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 54c | 322.25$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.82 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 52c | 302.21$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.76 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…57f9backed No | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…a272backed Yes | 45c | 275.6$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.58 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +497.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd013…94eabacked No | 6c | 272.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 78c | 270.17$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.02 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec2…f8fabacked No | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 19c | 250$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed No | 12c | 205$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf8…d63bbacked No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed Yes | 48c | 199.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 70c | 182.31$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8dd…afcabacked No | 26c | 181.53$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb765…e17fbacked No | 10c | 170$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 9c | 162$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…82d2backed No | 26c | 161.23$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed Yes | 7c | 158.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.46 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +5.9wins | +0.20per pick | 31cpaid | +258.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7124…70c1backed No | 52c | 150$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdde5…fd02backed No | 74c | 149.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.5 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 63c | 149.95$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.47 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed No | 10c | 147.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x03cb…4bf9backed No | 42c | 142.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 36c | 140$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c4…f21fbacked No | 67c | 123.72$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 28c | 113.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…e8bcbacked No | 43c | 111$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes | 79c | 107$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa607…3181backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7012…4035backed Yes | 54c | 93.85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…0de1backed Yes | 75c | 88.85$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc06c…a30bbacked No | 74c | 86.94$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed No | 31c | 84.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 22c | 78.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed6…58b9backed No | 65c | 78.02$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 78c | 78$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeeb…ac32backed Yes | 47c | 78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…7e95backed No | 26c | 77.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…7504backed Yes | 63c | 71.05$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 21c | 65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…2179backed No | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x197a…4932backed Yes | 75c | 57.32$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 63c | 55.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…e0adbacked No | 26c | 50.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ad…f321backed No | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked No | 66c | 42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 61c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…8f34backed Yes | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31c…5124backed No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9485…0349backed Yes | 69c | 34.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 69c | 27.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 49c | 22.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d1…f6c4backed No | 71c | 20.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd838…715ebacked No | 52c | 20.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…918dbacked No | 56c | 20.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed No | 57c | 19.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…fa3abacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Palisades fire be 50% contained by January 19?this page
- Will the Palisades fire be 50% contained by January 12?No won
- Will the Palisades fire be 50% contained by January 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.