Weather · resolved market
Will the Palisades fire be 50% contained by January 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5db233cc164093fb94df29df54e9a19b7884a88b7ad550e42e0acf96c211e21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,868
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,868 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 19c | 3,461$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.37 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3da…ba15backed Yes | 4c | 3,413$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes | 26c | 2,872$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.83 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 74c | 2,700$1,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked No | 78c | 2,294$1,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.13 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x279d…bc0ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,900$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 15c | 1,720$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.66 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 80c | 1,664$1,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.23 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 5c | 1,453$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.17 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93c7…088cbacked Yes | 23c | 1,255$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 10c | 1,100$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e0…8412backed Yes | 26c | 1,039$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked No | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d2…9eb7backed No | 64c | 1,000$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.21 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 50c | 796.15$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.3 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197a…4932backed Yes | 13c | 790.3$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1545…e2b2backed Yes | 23c | 768.12$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5632…748dbacked Yes | 2c | 637.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf8…d63bbacked No | 65c | 620$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf57a…4943backed No | 68c | 590.09$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…2307backed Yes | 12c | 578.61$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed No | 47c | 534$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…2e2ebacked No | 77c | 521.68$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.98 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 23c | 512.59$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.44 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x757a…0e81backed Yes | 52c | 456.23$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x095f…359abacked No | 79c | 455.07$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 14c | 447.69$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0b…661bbacked No | 43c | 438.88$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 429.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.32 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…8f34backed No | 49c | 405.93$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.93 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 16c | 390.23$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.81 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 63c | 371.9$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.36 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Yes | 32c | 366.77$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked No | 76c | 366.13$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.47 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 34c | 344$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.68 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa607…3181backed No | 71c | 321.97$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…7f26backed Yes | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb0…2cb3backed Yes | 5c | 260.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 46c | 240$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -54%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…a4bbbacked Yes | 20c | 211$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 54cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…aa40backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x444e…01d0backed No | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…f82ebacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ef…d114backed No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3831…c9bfbacked No | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…cc13backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 20c | 199.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 58c | 195.05$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.92 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8dd…afcabacked No | 80c | 162.5$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 80c | 160$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1457…637dbacked No | 76c | 160$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x132d…9bbabacked Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3b…e2f5backed No | 70c | 143.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1cb…3accbacked Yes | 21c | 123.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -68%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 32c | 110.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c72…1e3abacked No | 71c | 110$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked No | 49c | 102.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed No | 75c | 98$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a07…4769backed No | 80c | 91.25$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0c…4b07backed Yes | 55c | 82.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48b2…90f4backed No | 46c | 82.39$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 56c | 75.24$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.77 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 78c | 68.48$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 53c | 66.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb765…e17fbacked No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78cf…4816backed No | 44c | 53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +276.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa82c…bf59backed No | 50c | 51.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc697…04e3backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc2…55d7backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0323…bd13backed No | 80c | 46.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37a…c252backed No | 80c | 46.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f7…8569backed No | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc1…954ebacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 73c | 38.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe28b…23dfbacked No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 37c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c41…9b79backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e8…2a81backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…3e65backed Yes | 56c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e8…77d2backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Palisades fire be 50% contained by January 12?this page
- Will the Palisades fire be 50% contained by January 19?Yes won
- Will the Palisades fire be 50% contained by January 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.