Weather · resolved market
Will the Palisades fire be 50% contained by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6807313e41750dafa46d8c59cb358605cffbea02f38d3475c61db93f73672e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $131,640
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $130,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,640 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf92…55cbbacked No | 5c | 31,986$1,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,515.88 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x706f…605fbacked No | 5c | 7,630$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x761a…0e8ebacked No | 9c | 7,094$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc490…6507backed No | 6c | 1,548$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed No | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x664d…aa7dbacked No | 3c | 1,500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 8c | 1,239$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.05 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…57f9backed No | 12c | 1,223$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…7e95backed No | 8c | 795.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf8…d63bbacked No | 6c | 603.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 7c | 550$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 5c | 503.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e0…8412backed No | 6c | 492.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed6…58b9backed No | 6c | 419.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0b…eb6dbacked No | 6c | 409.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa726…4646backed No | 9c | 338.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3da…ba15backed No | 4c | 272$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…82d2backed No | 6c | 240$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3b…e2f5backed No | 9c | 201.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 10c | 181.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Palisades fire be 50% contained by January 31?this page
- Will the Palisades fire be 50% contained by January 12?No won
- Will the Palisades fire be 50% contained by January 19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.