Us Politics · resolved market
Apple announces iPhone assembly in the U.S. before September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x759ffbbf3c73ec50c2dfde02a517e8f1a1cc224256451e9a28815a0455e33768
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,930
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,930 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 5c | 4,599$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 3,313$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…1115backed Yes | 10c | 2,490$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.79 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -56%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b88…d628backed Yes | 9c | 2,478$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.02 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…2f88backed Yes | 2c | 2,125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e32…0dccbacked Yes | 7c | 1,619$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed Yes | 8c | 1,317$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.36 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 8c | 1,254$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.58 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4852…c9f2backed Yes | 1c | 1,225$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 35c | 1,095$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.34 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7265…e943backed Yes | 11c | 1,088$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…cbbbbacked Yes | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 5c | 999.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 4c | 993.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 9c | 983.53$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.21 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…8b8abacked Yes | 5c | 932.3$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.54 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 11cpaid | +178.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe569…0ff5backed Yes | 4c | 780.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed Yes | 4c | 700$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 2c | 615.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f32…3e2cbacked Yes | 4c | 609.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…2f8abacked Yes | 10c | 579.89$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1c…320ebacked Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…a2e1backed Yes | 9c | 540$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 513.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 6c | 494.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…c8f8backed Yes | 4c | 486.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c0…1b22backed Yes | 9c | 444.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 4c | 414.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7171…773abacked Yes | 3c | 357.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca5…6785backed Yes | 4c | 268.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1328…a034backed Yes | 9c | 233.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090f…b384backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe99c…725ebacked Yes | 8c | 132.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 29cpaid | +136.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb416…336abacked Yes | 15c | 131.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a5…c139backed Yes | 10c | 110$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72ad…f321backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed No | 59c | 43.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.