Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafbd236a95daa3a0fd8fbc8a92781726bb3abb4c572c2aa0e3cce9a0bacac1b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $197,065
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $178,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $197,065 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 13c | 30,603$3,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,839.54 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +159%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 12c | 29,773$3,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,718.52 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 12c | 29,213$3,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,590.14 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c68…4bd0backed Yes | 8c | 10,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3814…b9e6backed Yes | 8c | 10,000$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ae…ca84backed Yes | 8c | 8,700$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 13c | 6,238$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.49 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 14c | 4,760$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.61 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 11c | 4,509$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -74%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 14c | 2,737$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.52 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 11c | 2,600$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.6 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 14c | 2,359$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.77 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 13c | 1,719$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 13c | 1,422$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.19 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a6…7bfabacked Yes | 7c | 1,400$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 1,180$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.91 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed Yes | 11c | 900$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 20cpaid | +189.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 879.78$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.23 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 10c | 876$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.08 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4640…d094backed Yes | 12c | 850.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa165…0822backed Yes | 12c | 812.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 12c | 804.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6608…4d0cbacked Yes | 7c | 715.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…5fbfbacked Yes | 7c | 714.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f35…a8dbbacked Yes | 14c | 700.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Yes | 14c | 590$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf586…b0c0backed Yes | 10c | 510$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8e…c98cbacked Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa852…e6cdbacked Yes | 11c | 463.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7e…003ebacked Yes | 11c | 460.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8452…d314backed Yes | 12c | 401.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb277…d809backed Yes | 5c | 355.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430f…d787backed Yes | 16c | 321.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a8…aadebacked Yes | 13c | 315.44$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ad…f321backed Yes | 6c | 309.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 10c | 308.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce0e…bb97backed Yes | 12c | 284.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe896…938bbacked Yes | 13c | 232.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 15c | 201$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x155c…99e8backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…9a45backed Yes | 10c | 190$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0e…164cbacked Yes | 7c | 186$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…455fbacked Yes | 12c | 161.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e43…1dddbacked Yes | 7c | 160$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df3…f15abacked Yes | 9c | 105.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6547…8043backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…50b1backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d7…1273backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fd…c893backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0acbbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd02…60e0backed Yes | 15c | 95.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in July?this page
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.0% or less in July?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% in July?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in July?Yes won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in July?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.