TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$149,074
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$135,580

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $149,074 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes33c21,797$7,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,116.363228.1%9 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+159%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes31c20,418$6,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,249.0412820.3%26 W · 102 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes32c16,583$5,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,240.582025%5 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-21.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b03…e8afbacked Yes30c12,840$3,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,892.234027.5%11 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed Yes35c10,193$3,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,546.4522433.9%76 W · 148 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+69%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8797…bbbebacked Yes33c6,470$2,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,142.193920.5%8 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick23cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes28c6,180$1,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,754.048636%31 W · 55 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Yes37c3,579$1,341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,340.774916.3%8 W · 41 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick22cpaid+11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d73…bae7backed Yes30c3,200$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$970250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes4c3,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201526.7%4 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.18per pick9cpaid+56.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No67c2,929$1,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.9115148.3%73 W · 78 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked Yes32c2,926$932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932.064422.7%10 W · 34 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick24cpaid+102.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e0d…8250backed Yes45c2,516$1,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,130333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes3c2,333$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.99156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes32c2,140$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.48911.1%1 W · 8 L0.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-74%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes34c2,001$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.1419931.7%63 W · 136 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc77b…a526backed Yes31c1,560$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.021233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes27c1,316$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.464731.9%15 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcee…bda5backed Yes31c1,246$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.55145.1%23 W · 28 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+3.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e25…1531backed No62c1,171$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.222454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+22.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes30c1,086$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6547…8043backed Yes35c1,050$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3722142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes30c1,041$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.8123330.5%71 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x497b…aba5backed Yes44c698.59$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.824250%21 W · 21 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes35c636.01$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.246235.5%22 W · 40 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No58c600$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2541668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+22.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6608…4d0cbacked Yes37c546.76$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94a3…67e3backed Yes32c544$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.722020%4 W · 16 L-4.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-54.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbbab…2cd0backed Yes33c500$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1651827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-47.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8bd8…7eaabacked Yes32c500$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0286…eb6cbacked Yes40c499.6$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes33c463.99$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.9714024.3%34 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e6e…99eabacked Yes35c317.1$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.99616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-70.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a7d…0bf1backed Yes32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x018a…4651backed Yes34c310$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.32123.8%5 W · 16 L-3.8wins-0.18per pick42cpaid-37.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0e80…3082backed Yes38c300$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No62c281.05$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.3920242.1%85 W · 117 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfdf7…0426backed Yes35c271.43$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick45cpaid-69.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x264d…6f2bbacked Yes38c263.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc8e…c98cbacked Yes31c248.13$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09e2…29debacked Yes71c240$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.21520%1 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.39per pick59cpaid-71.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked No46c215.98$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.9511039.1%43 W · 67 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+115.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x56f0…1c37backed No51c214$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.446523.1%15 W · 50 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72a8…aadebacked Yes33c212.12$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf20…f904backed Yes52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10420%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes33c200$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No66c192.95$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.1817528%49 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xda78…e9c1backed No63c190$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.31540%6 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3161…daf5backed Yes26c190$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.43426.5%9 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x616b…4070backed Yes55c181.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-31.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec13…455fbacked Yes37c176.76$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6ec…1dadbacked No65c168.11$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581050%5 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked No63c161.6$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.693435.3%12 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa6f…7e67backed No72c156$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.461361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8049…b09dbacked Yes52c155.58$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+26.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58d6…6667backed Yes53c147.17$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb277…d809backed No66c133.42$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.461233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x430f…d787backed Yes40c125.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-50.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes29c124.63$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.646532.3%21 W · 44 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-24.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa1d3…4356backed Yes38c120$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.61428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-27.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2fd4…9b85backed Yes31c115.03$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e43…1dddbacked Yes36c110$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe896…938bbacked Yes37c103.64$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3830%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3aa…bddcbacked No67c102$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.934344.2%19 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes35c101$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.35677.5%5 W · 62 L-5.9wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed No66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349024.4%22 W · 68 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3614325.2%36 W · 107 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17da…10e5backed No59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.214100%4 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+141.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x296b…2cf2backed Yes38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x155c…99e8backed Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3630%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55d8…0cf5backed No66c80$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.21668.8%11 W · 5 L+3.8wins+0.24per pick45cpaid+59.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa852…e6cdbacked Yes38c78.95$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf10f…004dbacked Yes30c76.67$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+21.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91e1…1282backed No67c74.63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.63366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce0e…bb97backed Yes36c72.14$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9730%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1834…795abacked Yes53c66.6$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.02333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x825e…904fbacked No71c66.13$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb9d…e31bbacked Yes32c63.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.45580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ff2…5d34backed No71c59$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes28c58$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.29728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa3f…cc4fbacked No69c57.97$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0224…c8aabacked Yes35c57.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ada…8d3dbacked No72c56.82$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1608…71f8backed Yes31c55.45$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15ff…0fdebacked Yes37c54.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7a8…d796backed Yes38c51.24$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4750%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x50f4…f549backed Yes65c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.530%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x064c…2de1backed No63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.51560%9 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1088…b813backed Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+55.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5f…9a7dbacked Yes31c48.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+46.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9604…f217backed Yes34c43.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dcf…5d31backed Yes37c40.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No43c39.36$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.364240.5%17 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fed…7b95backed Yes36c36.11$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f90…38e7backed Yes56c33.91$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf5…95adbacked Yes35c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-51.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9afd…3028backed No68c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick59cpaid-3.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbdd0…550abacked Yes48c24.57$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.77333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf133…9964backed No62c22$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.36250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick40cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.42740.7%11 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-25.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.