Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21706f8aef9aa3c1568c4354268669bdaa416026876afe3d0972a8a2ab844ea2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $149,074
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $135,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $149,074 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 33c | 21,797$7,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,116.36 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +159%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 31c | 20,418$6,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,249.04 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 32c | 16,583$5,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,240.58 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b03…e8afbacked Yes | 30c | 12,840$3,892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,892.23 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 35c | 10,193$3,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,546.45 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 33c | 6,470$2,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,142.19 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 28c | 6,180$1,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,754.04 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Yes | 37c | 3,579$1,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,340.77 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d73…bae7backed Yes | 30c | 3,200$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 4c | 3,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 9cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 2,929$1,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.91 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 32c | 2,926$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.06 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0d…8250backed Yes | 45c | 2,516$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 3c | 2,333$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 32c | 2,140$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.48 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -74%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 34c | 2,001$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.14 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 31c | 1,560$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.02 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes | 27c | 1,316$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.46 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcee…bda5backed Yes | 31c | 1,246$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.5 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…1531backed No | 62c | 1,171$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.22 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 30c | 1,086$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6547…8043backed Yes | 35c | 1,050$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 30c | 1,041$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.81 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 44c | 698.59$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.82 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 35c | 636.01$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.24 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 58c | 600$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6608…4d0cbacked Yes | 37c | 546.76$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a3…67e3backed Yes | 32c | 544$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.72 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed Yes | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…7eaabacked Yes | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0286…eb6cbacked Yes | 40c | 499.6$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 33c | 463.99$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.97 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6e…99eabacked Yes | 35c | 317.1$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7d…0bf1backed Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…4651backed Yes | 34c | 310$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.3 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e80…3082backed Yes | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 281.05$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.39 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf7…0426backed Yes | 35c | 271.43$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x264d…6f2bbacked Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8e…c98cbacked Yes | 31c | 248.13$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked Yes | 71c | 240$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 46c | 215.98$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.95 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed No | 51c | 214$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.44 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a8…aadebacked Yes | 33c | 212.12$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf20…f904backed Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 66c | 192.95$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.18 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda78…e9c1backed No | 63c | 190$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.3 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…daf5backed Yes | 26c | 190$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x616b…4070backed Yes | 55c | 181.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…455fbacked Yes | 37c | 176.76$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 65c | 168.11$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked No | 63c | 161.6$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.69 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 72c | 156$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.46 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8049…b09dbacked Yes | 52c | 155.58$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58d6…6667backed Yes | 53c | 147.17$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb277…d809backed No | 66c | 133.42$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.46 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430f…d787backed Yes | 40c | 125.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 29c | 124.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d3…4356backed Yes | 38c | 120$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd4…9b85backed Yes | 31c | 115.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e43…1dddbacked Yes | 36c | 110$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe896…938bbacked Yes | 37c | 103.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…bddcbacked No | 67c | 102$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.93 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 35c | 101$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 67 | 7.5%5 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 90 | 24.4%22 W · 68 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17da…10e5backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +141.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x296b…2cf2backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x155c…99e8backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…0cf5backed No | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.8wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa852…e6cdbacked Yes | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 30c | 76.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91e1…1282backed No | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce0e…bb97backed Yes | 36c | 72.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1834…795abacked Yes | 53c | 66.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 71c | 66.13$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked Yes | 32c | 63.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff2…5d34backed No | 71c | 59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes | 28c | 58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3f…cc4fbacked No | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…c8aabacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ada…8d3dbacked No | 72c | 56.82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…71f8backed Yes | 31c | 55.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ff…0fdebacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a8…d796backed Yes | 38c | 51.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…f549backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5f…9a7dbacked Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9604…f217backed Yes | 34c | 43.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dcf…5d31backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 43c | 39.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fed…7b95backed Yes | 36c | 36.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f90…38e7backed Yes | 56c | 33.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…95adbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd0…550abacked Yes | 48c | 24.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…9964backed No | 62c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in July?this page
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.0% or less in July?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% in July?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in July?Yes won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in July?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.