Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.0% or less in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4dfc7605cd7665efd5af6c5e072b93b8658ec5cc884995751d9ba812999dd63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $205,368
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $182,710
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $205,368 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 3c | 22,934$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.41 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 1c | 15,808$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.28 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd87b…db63backed Yes | 2c | 14,231$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98fa…d698backed Yes | 1c | 12,434$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.59 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 10,931$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.22 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53f1…4d07backed Yes | 4c | 7,409$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 2c | 6,013$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.62 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 1c | 5,274$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.53 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 2c | 4,415$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.71 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -74%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe92…d51abacked Yes | 2c | 4,184$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 30cpaid | +27%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 4c | 3,781$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.07 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…a403backed Yes | 2c | 3,194$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.17 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a6…7bfabacked Yes | 5c | 2,831$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,223$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 2c | 2,210$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 2,116$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 2c | 2,096$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 3c | 1,995$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.13 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6def…7096backed Yes | 1c | 1,839$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 2cpaid | +889.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 6c | 1,800$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.3 | 90 | 24.4%22 W · 68 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,688$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,188$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 2c | 1,108$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Yes | 2c | 1,040$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…daf5backed Yes | 2c | 897.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 5c | 555$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca5…6785backed Yes | 5c | 286.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 265.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 5c | 262$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.0% or less in July?this page
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% in July?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in July?Yes won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in July?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in July?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.