Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4% in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3126cccd9042f185cf2bc8621521c5b32b299ba3f41a10b8300ae5a1ee84d21a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $214,919
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $213,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $214,919 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30c9…8770backed No | 16c | 65,121$10,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,419.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7238…1396backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 6,992$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.98 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed No | 25c | 3,350$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.14 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 68c | 2,111$1,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.07 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c7…79b1backed No | 10c | 2,079$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…fa51backed No | 5c | 1,955$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2763…7776backed No | 17c | 1,765$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.73 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked No | 14c | 1,692$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.46 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…01d5backed No | 18c | 1,666$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.63 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff6…72aebacked Yes | 71c | 1,554$1,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.55 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c9…a2efbacked Yes | 78c | 1,518$1,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed No | 34c | 1,516$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.71 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x952c…5414backed No | 15c | 1,248$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed No | 24c | 1,142$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.34 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 77c | 1,028$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.8 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 23c | 1,022$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.69 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf16c…57d6backed Yes | 53c | 1,010$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…8f06backed No | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…d6d2backed No | 25c | 992$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.62 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 72c | 755$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.63 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78f2…51a1backed Yes | 80c | 726.68$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.51 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 21c | 724.23$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.51 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked Yes | 75c | 718.36$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d7…49d8backed Yes | 70c | 662.59$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 12c | 610.42$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.78 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4d…f703backed Yes | 80c | 600$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 75c | 535.08$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.54 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 27c | 525.41$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.56 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 77c | 482.19$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.1 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…95adbacked Yes | 45c | 445.47$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.01 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd74d…85e9backed No | 20c | 393.48$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.69 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 59c | 389.58$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.07 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…3e59backed No | 17c | 384$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 7c | 377.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -96.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 62c | 363.92$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.57 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe10b…5fe3backed No | 20c | 341.32$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe346…c545backed No | 26c | 330.23$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 76c | 325$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 23c | 322.93$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.68 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x387a…927dbacked No | 13c | 320$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ad…f321backed No | 16c | 316.75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.87 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf4…fdd7backed Yes | 66c | 303.92$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eab…7badbacked Yes | 34c | 298.92$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.54 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 24c | 295.51$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.89 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2836…a0cdbacked No | 17c | 295.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06af…3741backed No | 24c | 273.85$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa0…ee01backed Yes | 65c | 224.27$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a93…9e17backed No | 48c | 208.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…ea70backed No | 42c | 205.17$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a38…f931backed No | 15c | 205$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…4109backed Yes | 72c | 187.99$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.88 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…511dbacked No | 12c | 186.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked No | 9c | 180$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…3a9fbacked Yes | 65c | 159.22$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 37cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…d338backed Yes | 73c | 136.09$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3814…f0bfbacked Yes | 76c | 127.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a1…af66backed Yes | 78c | 120$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 33c | 115.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…a8a9backed Yes | 74c | 110$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1512…68f3backed No | 20c | 109.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476a…2a22backed Yes | 79c | 107.59$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.9 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017f…7c54backed No | 25c | 99.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 51c | 96.49$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.49 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…bae4backed Yes | 60c | 86.46$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 38c | 82.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab24…8c8ebacked Yes | 56c | 77.65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 45c | 76.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 68c | 71.08$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3424…31a7backed No | 40c | 67.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 20c | 67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 107 | 13.1%14 W · 93 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36f1…ec06backed Yes | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa74…4c14backed Yes | 44c | 57.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…1531backed No | 18c | 57.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa98f…6a3fbacked Yes | 58c | 57.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d3…4356backed No | 40c | 57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 23c | 56.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 20c | 56.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ad…b056backed Yes | 55c | 54.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 61cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed No | 56c | 53.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -82%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94a3…67e3backed Yes | 59c | 50.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31e5…0b07backed Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 23cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc39a…2214backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddd…722dbacked Yes | 75c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcb…e448backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f42…e44ebacked Yes | 35c | 47.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +114.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c83…8a22backed Yes | 76c | 47.79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e4…7c86backed No | 23c | 47.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaef2…bc22backed Yes | 77c | 47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf12f…acdfbacked Yes | 76c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce8e…923fbacked Yes | 69c | 43.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…1f07backed Yes | 67c | 42.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd02d…17e8backed Yes | 61c | 42.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…c91ebacked No | 52c | 40.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4% in 2025?this page
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 1.0% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 2.0% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.0% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.6% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.7% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.