Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x653ddfa7814701756736823c3c8d7af2ae389824e696eb54cc2b5154d625de2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,244
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,244 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70e9…adeabacked Yes | 6c | 2,325$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.22 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,983$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed No | 64c | 1,089$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.67 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351b…3c1abacked No | 32c | 980$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1066…7849backed Yes | 2c | 956$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…6d35backed Yes | 5c | 793.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ba…2b97backed Yes | 7c | 697$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20cf…5a3cbacked Yes | 40c | 600$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcb…e448backed Yes | 28c | 569.99$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x975d…01bebacked Yes | 9c | 550$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf1…59d8backed Yes | 42c | 471.12$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e2…d8b8backed Yes | 7c | 372$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9d…cdffbacked Yes | 13c | 318.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 7c | 309.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 35c | 300$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 5c | 253.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x317b…72f5backed No | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44d3…17bdbacked Yes | 68c | 240$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 29c | 218.52$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.19 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed No | 74c | 218.26$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a0…e9ebbacked Yes | 68c | 210$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a4…c1e1backed Yes | 68c | 210$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 6c | 207.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…8d1cbacked No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -42%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x778f…bd9dbacked No | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4396…f0e1backed Yes | 29c | 172.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 10c | 171.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2f…eff8backed Yes | 68c | 170$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25d6…a63ebacked Yes | 31c | 159.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 10c | 156.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46d5…aaa9backed No | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50ba…add2backed Yes | 68c | 150$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 67c | 148.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.05 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef5…9e19backed Yes | 69c | 145.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked No | 67c | 144.9$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 68c | 140$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.72 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4666…36d5backed No | 72c | 138.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e24…ed17backed No | 38c | 133.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.17 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 65c | 133.5$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.01 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefe2…b68cbacked Yes | 32c | 123.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x952c…5414backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce60…6705backed No | 69c | 99.29$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 54c | 97.55$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 38c | 85.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.03 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x40fe…3bfdbacked Yes | 49c | 81.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa2…b0f1backed Yes | 47c | 79.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe703…5d74backed Yes | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc532…8f74backed No | 40c | 70$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0f…8aa5backed No | 76c | 66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf235…7edabacked No | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8a…7edfbacked No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce8…df43backed No | 63c | 34.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c13…eb7fbacked No | 69c | 28.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% in 2025?this page
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 1.0% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 2.0% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.0% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.6% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.7% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4% in 2025?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.