Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8370b54d8b25a8a408ddb402ff7a03178139f59593ee97c03a10a43523516404
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $462,391
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $598,092
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $462,391 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8ff6…72aebacked Yes | 10c | 70,409$7,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,042.04 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ec…157fbacked No | 72c | 41,258$29,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,552.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd5…2a3fbacked Yes | 28c | 41,258$11,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,552.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 12c | 21,803$2,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,544.91 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 22c | 8,670$1,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,894.55 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe198…4681backed Yes | 1c | 7,130$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0877…fa92backed Yes | 7c | 5,658$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.63 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Yes | 16c | 3,117$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 36cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x25c7…79b1backed Yes | 14c | 3,052$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdb…aad8backed Yes | 11c | 2,622$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…a63bbacked Yes | 20c | 2,509$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.7 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes | 15c | 2,140$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.39 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes | 17c | 2,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…01d5backed No | 73c | 1,814$1,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.49 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 32c | 1,563$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.5 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +211.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 1,256$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.35 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…d6d2backed No | 73c | 1,234$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.29 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…3e59backed No | 73c | 1,217$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd291…103ebacked Yes | 18c | 1,178$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7003…a528backed Yes | 17c | 1,020$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,019$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 33c | 948.72$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.73 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c54…cc1ebacked No | 77c | 928$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e55…2b2abacked Yes | 27c | 926.85$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…4109backed Yes | 18c | 899.99$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16c…57d6backed Yes | 27c | 812.7$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.19 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…bae4backed Yes | 25c | 723.57$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.37 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x249b…5df1backed Yes | 11c | 658$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.96 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f3…3d8abacked Yes | 41c | 605$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82a3…88d0backed Yes | 10c | 598$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…ce22backed Yes | 9c | 486.1$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73bb…9473backed No | 73c | 463$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.74 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d48…6237backed Yes | 29c | 462.85$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 27c | 456.56$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.27 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8637…9657backed Yes | 65c | 385$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.25 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b54…6e4fbacked Yes | 65c | 292$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 22c | 280$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3209…fef4backed Yes | 8c | 250.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 243.63$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.69 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5935…693dbacked Yes | 12c | 207.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ce…ee0bbacked Yes | 14c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2836…a0cdbacked No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b6…2f9fbacked Yes | 11c | 190.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab44…cbb1backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x792b…dd64backed Yes | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 33c | 164.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 17c | 156.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d7…49d8backed Yes | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b30…c0b6backed Yes | 10c | 138.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 18c | 125$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5e…a09cbacked Yes | 16c | 123.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +162.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 24c | 122.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a79…38edbacked Yes | 17c | 118.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 35c | 114.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.28 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 17c | 112.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5654backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180a…8b0dbacked Yes | 17c | 101.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 73c | 101.19$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9833…3f04backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…d639backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c23…4afbbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa344…8141backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0262…a9d2backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb167…f6e8backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ce…5a1cbacked Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5411…ff7dbacked Yes | 13c | 92.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed No | 65c | 77.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06af…3741backed No | 35c | 73.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…7959backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55c9…00b8backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…d004backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30dc…eb17backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1b…27b1backed Yes | 27c | 37.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 63c | 23.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1809…4eb7backed No | 55c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…12f6backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edb…4b51backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% in 2025?this page
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 1.0% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 2.0% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.0% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.6% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.7% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4% in 2025?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.