Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.0% in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2573e7b989599007ae5838ae965b1b58ce4fbd2dba3f06224c177e91a7f66692
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $262,915
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $310,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $262,915 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b2e…09c8backed Yes | 16c | 54,896$8,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,783.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0877…fa92backed Yes | 2c | 13,121$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.49 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f80…89d2backed Yes | 1c | 7,150$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d5…f238backed Yes | 1c | 6,158$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…a63bbacked Yes | 19c | 3,970$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.33 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c8…7da7backed Yes | 0c | 3,865$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c5…7b74backed Yes | 0c | 3,851$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,061$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…bae4backed Yes | 15c | 2,030$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.8 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 1c | 1,330$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -96.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 12c | 1,187$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.25 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 4c | 1,074$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 2c | 1,029$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f3…3d8abacked Yes | 16c | 917.65$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9885…210ebacked Yes | 9c | 800$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…4693backed Yes | 20c | 593.77$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdb…aad8backed Yes | 9c | 580.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd291…103ebacked Yes | 16c | 577.51$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f88…bd2bbacked Yes | 5c | 517.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9208…de81backed Yes | 9c | 278.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…d6d2backed No | 80c | 157.59$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c8…da0ebacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.0% in 2025?this page
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 1.0% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 2.0% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.6% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.7% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% in 2025?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4% in 2025?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.