Us Politics · resolved market
Will the U.S. deport illegal migrants to El Salvador before April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44ed371c6f18a042223cb9f88e0a1363383657cd3a5d02a8b45c457fa1790ebf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,108
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,108 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed No | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 31c | 3,205$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.09 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa8…6c7cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,247$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,149.51 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b88…d628backed Yes | 3c | 519.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.12 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…b536backed No | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf162…ba35backed Yes | 62c | 496.06$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.1 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0347…e0e5backed Yes | 46c | 217.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.83 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked Yes | 22c | 211.23$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.41 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b7…2f70backed Yes | 24c | 200$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 34c | 189.07$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.96 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked No | 57c | 164.67$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.39 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x410a…e8b8backed No | 39c | 149.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 15c | 141.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 38c | 140$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.8 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked Yes | 38c | 128.62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.62 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe8…e79ebacked Yes | 56c | 115.15$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 12c | 113.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.1 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…7112backed Yes | 36c | 112.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.18 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +7.0wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa607…3181backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x546d…e5cfbacked No | 58c | 99.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.19 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 56c | 97.13$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab3…00fdbacked No | 56c | 94.49$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.32 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 81.37$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.07 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…ff53backed Yes | 49c | 60.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +118%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 71c | 59.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Yes | 33c | 57.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 49c | 52.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed No | 38c | 52.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…294ebacked Yes | 62c | 51.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda2…45f9backed No | 49c | 41.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018d…7f0abacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 43cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfee2…a609backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ad…f321backed Yes | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…4bdfbacked No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…e597backed Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70a8…9105backed Yes | 44c | 29.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…8969backed No | 51c | 20.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01dd…e610backed Yes | 52c | 20.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf09e…e918backed No | 51c | 20.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c5…ac8bbacked Yes | 52c | 20.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe0…b82cbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0741…b3b5backed Yes | 60c | 18.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.