Us Politics · resolved market
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than 200k employees in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fbb0f30bb2022050a423ebfb83477501c2967e207517c726f606438aa6ea428
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $180,579
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $146,647
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $180,579 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e57…5f66backed No | 58c | 23,766$13,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,784.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7da…63d7backed Yes | 42c | 23,766$9,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,784.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdea…a777backed No | 6c | 5,136$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.94 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -75%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a3…e60abacked Yes | 30c | 5,104$1,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,567.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 52c | 4,014$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,913.58 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb921…9c0abacked No | 3c | 3,125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 5c | 2,786$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.39 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 5c | 2,665$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.37 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…fad7backed No | 1c | 2,338$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…d918backed Yes | 43c | 2,264$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,281.22 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 1,788$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.27 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…5f13backed No | 47c | 1,729$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.16 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed No | 43c | 1,722$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.28 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 51c | 1,230$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.14 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 40c | 1,204$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.33 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 1,188$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf7…db17backed No | 3c | 905.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…2dfabacked No | 6c | 836.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked No | 42c | 803.99$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.2 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77fd…b6c8backed No | 4c | 800$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 3c | 794.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 24c | 708.96$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.81 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 6c | 693.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x633f…3c8abacked No | 57c | 668.66$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf60d…9ec9backed Yes | 32c | 633.22$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.22 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 4c | 626.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 78 | 7.7%6 W · 72 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 3c | 559.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 13c | 545$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.79 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed Yes | 8c | 540.26$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.05 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 56c | 526.5$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.91 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 5c | 511.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04e8…a0bfbacked No | 69c | 500$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f38…4c9abacked No | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +139%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b90…a0c7backed No | 69c | 483.93$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.03 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 51c | 449.57$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.54 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 66c | 444$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.82 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 44c | 404.46$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.27 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9146…335abacked Yes | 46c | 400$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 33c | 400$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 21c | 388$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.58 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb862…5aaebacked Yes | 24c | 384$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked No | 5c | 381.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc979…4a98backed Yes | 56c | 366.37$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.02 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 77c | 356.96$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.02 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe461…9a34backed Yes | 63c | 337.14$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.69 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 54c | 333$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.18 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed No | 7c | 330$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes | 7c | 303$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.78 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec4c…6994backed Yes | 62c | 300$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…01b1backed Yes | 13c | 255$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +204.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…5cc4backed No | 8c | 225.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b4…7e30backed Yes | 29c | 220$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.75 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 13c | 212$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3f…cc4fbacked No | 56c | 208.49$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 17c | 208.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 145 | 28.3%41 W · 104 L | +11.0wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…8cc1backed No | 76c | 198$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Yes | 30c | 194.08$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.57 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…05e9backed No | 51c | 189.29$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.29 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 57c | 184.6$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.38 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…136bbacked Yes | 57c | 177.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.79 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…8c45backed Yes | 15c | 176$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +101.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3aaf…4a36backed No | 6c | 170.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed No | 12c | 166.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…8211backed Yes | 23c | 163$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 44c | 158.53$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.75 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked No | 80c | 150$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | -17.3wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 8c | 148.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.93 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9394…37dabacked Yes | 58c | 144.83$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.83 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 42c | 138.55$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 29c | 132.34$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.74 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f34…0e5cbacked Yes | 56c | 129.79$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a5…92e0backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed No | 69c | 120$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffcb…bed5backed Yes | 56c | 118.82$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 48c | 116.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.91 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 47c | 114$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 41c | 112$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 107.51$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.14 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x290d…9e42backed Yes | 19c | 106$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +170.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…c53ebacked No | 17c | 105.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…4815backed No | 76c | 104$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c5…2dacbacked Yes | 15c | 102$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Yes | 29c | 101.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 30c | 101.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9a…6e47backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dff…1f35backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 40c | 99.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4984…69d2backed Yes | 15c | 96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 37cpaid | +319.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 69c | 90$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0b…29e9backed Yes | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fe…1779backed Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b2…9ae2backed No | 77c | 89$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb381…13cdbacked Yes | 56c | 86.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 83.73$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc20a…d9a3backed Yes | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…54a7backed No | 76c | 82$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd713…4662backed No | 40c | 79.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 30c | 74.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.06 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon and DOGE cut more than 200k employees in 2025?this page
- Will Elon and DOGE cut 100-150k employees in 2025?No won
- Will Elon and DOGE cut 150-200k employees in 2025?No won
- Will Elon and DOGE cut 50-100k employees in 2025?No won
- Will Elon and DOGE cut less than 50k employees in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.