Us Politics · resolved market
Will Elon and DOGE cut 150-200k employees in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17b9d9abd9064c5d892b522ddb245fdc853183b20dd5001aba4294ebd1c371b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $162,417
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,390
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $162,417 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 281 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6238…5f13backed Yes | 35c | 2,605$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.28 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 11c | 2,223$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.46 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,065$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.97 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a3…e60abacked Yes | 6c | 1,546$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 11c | 1,356$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.8 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…d918backed Yes | 13c | 1,235$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.31 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed Yes | 17c | 1,215$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.58 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked Yes | 8c | 953$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.18 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed No | 54c | 498$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 441.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 4c | 432.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 78c | 415$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.3 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…f404backed No | 54c | 414$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 21c | 402.51$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.37 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdeba…a5e0backed Yes | 8c | 396.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…305bbacked Yes | 38c | 385$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8401…a498backed Yes | 46c | 384$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed Yes | 46c | 316$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec4c…6994backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed Yes | 8c | 299$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd29…a638backed Yes | 7c | 287.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 21c | 270.49$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.79 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac61…f5f7backed Yes | 15c | 268.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 25c | 241.23$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.54 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed No | 62c | 233$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4516…ea0ebacked No | 61c | 226$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 10c | 223.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9be1…cb56backed Yes | 39c | 220$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x633f…3c8abacked Yes | 38c | 216.09$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47eb…8195backed No | 65c | 202$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…2693backed Yes | 37c | 201$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 68c | 189$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.6 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e48…5b16backed Yes | 35c | 189$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…ca25backed Yes | 49c | 184.02$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ad…7b93backed Yes | 36c | 183$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…20dfbacked Yes | 35c | 181$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfec…09a7backed Yes | 27c | 178$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…136bbacked Yes | 8c | 177.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf85…3761backed Yes | 35c | 174$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…8adebacked No | 62c | 168$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0184…23f6backed Yes | 46c | 168$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.28 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf666…8842backed Yes | 37c | 166$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff48…eb81backed Yes | 36c | 162$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8362…9cc1backed Yes | 35c | 159$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed No | 73c | 152$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4c…390fbacked Yes | 35c | 152$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…1ff0backed Yes | 46c | 149$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a42…769fbacked Yes | 35c | 145$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117f…088ebacked Yes | 23c | 143$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x009d…4128backed Yes | 35c | 143$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4984…69d2backed No | 58c | 139$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 37cpaid | +319.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb132…6943backed Yes | 23c | 133$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5372…5f61backed No | 77c | 133$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…10f3backed Yes | 36c | 133$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…4441backed No | 59c | 132$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x394a…2011backed Yes | 15c | 132$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2f…a8aabacked No | 77c | 125$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d9…8483backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf42b…7577backed No | 77c | 123$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8624…b484backed Yes | 47c | 123$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…e442backed Yes | 23c | 122$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…2648backed Yes | 35c | 117$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x708a…68b9backed No | 73c | 114$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 79c | 111$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…a0c9backed Yes | 43c | 111$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 36c | 109.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…cadabacked Yes | 56c | 107.02$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4e…e2fbbacked Yes | 42c | 107$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 54c | 106.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.36 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc123…115cbacked No | 57c | 103$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3c…7cd3backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 40cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd704…cf56backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe627…e145backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 23c | 99.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 19c | 95.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf999…5460backed Yes | 36c | 95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4faa…fecfbacked No | 53c | 92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…1272backed Yes | 42c | 90$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b4…e0d6backed Yes | 35c | 89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7170…ff5fbacked Yes | 34c | 89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…9791backed No | 65c | 87$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0e…282abacked No | 62c | 85$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8b95backed Yes | 35c | 83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aee…10a3backed Yes | 34c | 81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012b…7f98backed No | 65c | 81$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8413…6c50backed Yes | 35c | 79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08f6…62e0backed No | 64c | 78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa70e…52e9backed Yes | 35c | 78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe273…4efbbacked Yes | 34c | 78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5884…3191backed Yes | 41c | 77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…c370backed Yes | 34c | 77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb88…6b99backed No | 54c | 77$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf794…fa60backed No | 63c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…f203backed Yes | 36c | 75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…89fabacked Yes | 35c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5913…92c7backed Yes | 35c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x748f…d738backed No | 65c | 72$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03df…2523backed Yes | 34c | 72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon and DOGE cut 150-200k employees in 2025?this page
- Will Elon and DOGE cut 100-150k employees in 2025?No won
- Will Elon and DOGE cut 50-100k employees in 2025?No won
- Will Elon and DOGE cut less than 50k employees in 2025?No won
- Will Elon and DOGE cut more than 200k employees in 2025?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.