Us Politics · resolved market
Will Elon and DOGE cut 50-100k employees in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb331efeaaff0f0ce986b071bd212ecfa121298427f98e61d22296c4db9d61b50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,217
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6019…01afbacked Yes | 1c | 5,100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 4,327$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,785$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.37 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…05d0backed Yes | 2c | 1,135$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed Yes | 11c | 1,003$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.89 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a3…88d0backed Yes | 16c | 801.04$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed Yes | 25c | 671.31$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.01 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 2c | 638.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e0…4935backed Yes | 13c | 597.94$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 516.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…c9dabacked Yes | 18c | 470.28$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.03 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 15c | 450.39$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.56 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 17c | 435.58$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.08 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044b…ce4fbacked Yes | 15c | 396$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb921…9c0abacked Yes | 3c | 375.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 15c | 368.82$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.06 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 26c | 350$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec4c…6994backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 33c | 224$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.05 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 11c | 222$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…136bbacked Yes | 11c | 177.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6f…340bbacked Yes | 16c | 149$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 79c | 145.76$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Yes | 14c | 135.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +90%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x633f…3c8abacked Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x394a…2011backed Yes | 17c | 102$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9a…6e47backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd704…cf56backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 19c | 91.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe289…52f1backed Yes | 18c | 61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3089…92f6backed Yes | 18c | 61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +71%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…6be6backed Yes | 19c | 58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1844…7943backed Yes | 24c | 51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 31cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon and DOGE cut 50-100k employees in 2025?this page
- Will Elon and DOGE cut 100-150k employees in 2025?No won
- Will Elon and DOGE cut 150-200k employees in 2025?No won
- Will Elon and DOGE cut less than 50k employees in 2025?No won
- Will Elon and DOGE cut more than 200k employees in 2025?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.