Us Politics · resolved market
Will Elon and DOGE cut less than 50k employees in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fe2c84b8f1b32e3c0c82bdf7c6d640e62876d5aafeda68dcb277842bcafcd6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $314,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $314,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ce2…5645backed Yes | 1c | 7,617$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6019…01afbacked Yes | 1c | 5,802$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked Yes | 9c | 4,528$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.16 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,377$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b4…c06abacked Yes | 1c | 3,815$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…6b61backed Yes | 1c | 3,815$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5218backed Yes | 0c | 3,815$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8650…b3f7backed Yes | 1c | 3,270$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 7c | 3,051$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.15 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5da5…79eebacked Yes | 18c | 3,050$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.96 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…245dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,725$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb5…bdcdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,725$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…aa4cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,725$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aed…b8bfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,725$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa909…6badbacked Yes | 1c | 2,725$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f49…af16backed Yes | 1c | 2,725$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…320cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,180$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdac…547abacked Yes | 1c | 2,180$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6225…5eb6backed Yes | 1c | 1,635$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…fd9cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,635$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5db…d774backed Yes | 1c | 1,635$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4000…c7debacked Yes | 1c | 1,635$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cf…a0b7backed Yes | 1c | 1,635$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x633f…3c8abacked Yes | 15c | 1,626$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.52 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac61…f5f7backed Yes | 14c | 1,625$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.69 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 7c | 1,620$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.6 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed Yes | 9c | 1,439$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.47 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 4c | 1,263$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 10c | 999.12$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.79 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18d…b98fbacked Yes | 11c | 824.48$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x338e…646ebacked Yes | 2c | 721.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f29…a5febacked Yes | 5c | 713.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 17c | 666$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.22 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4b…4905backed Yes | 2c | 622.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed Yes | 14c | 604.73$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.27 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…d918backed No | 78c | 543.99$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.56 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 17c | 520.32$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.21 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0662…25b9backed Yes | 11c | 396.45$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 10c | 350$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 344.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…b59bbacked Yes | 16c | 335.09$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec4c…6994backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 10c | 240$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 22c | 203$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…136bbacked Yes | 9c | 177.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 12c | 163.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x007f…cd86backed Yes | 15c | 119.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c7…05dfbacked Yes | 25c | 100.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 17c | 100.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 75c | 64.24$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…e597backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon and DOGE cut less than 50k employees in 2025?this page
- Will Elon and DOGE cut 100-150k employees in 2025?No won
- Will Elon and DOGE cut 150-200k employees in 2025?No won
- Will Elon and DOGE cut 50-100k employees in 2025?No won
- Will Elon and DOGE cut more than 200k employees in 2025?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.