Us Politics · resolved market
Will Elon and DOGE cut 100-150k employees in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3260faa08170da537349f447dc4c19e30c02df0ec5c0d6ef1bbf950453dd0c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,339
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,731$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,365$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.09 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 21c | 1,337$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.68 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed Yes | 19c | 1,180$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.04 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb921…9c0abacked Yes | 1c | 1,176$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 18c | 1,018$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.92 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…5f13backed Yes | 21c | 918.71$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.59 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c7…2ef5backed Yes | 13c | 789.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 12c | 699.97$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.54 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 7c | 681.28$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…ca25backed Yes | 20c | 642.13$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a3…e60abacked No | 79c | 591.35$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked Yes | 14c | 522.89$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.34 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04e8…a0bfbacked Yes | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 425.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e58…0d4dbacked Yes | 9c | 392.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27a4…196cbacked Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffdd…c06fbacked Yes | 44c | 349$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.9 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 50c | 340$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a79…1ccbbacked Yes | 29c | 325$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x633f…3c8abacked Yes | 21c | 313.58$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…e5a3backed Yes | 23c | 302$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec4c…6994backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6f…340bbacked Yes | 9c | 299$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked Yes | 9c | 291.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 20c | 273.64$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.91 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x667f…8c3ebacked No | 59c | 269$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x809a…f315backed Yes | 30c | 256$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 9c | 249.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3359…2273backed No | 71c | 246$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63b4…7e30backed No | 69c | 240$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked Yes | 28c | 234$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed Yes | 10c | 231.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 11c | 222$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f52…a35abacked Yes | 41c | 220$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d24…a2e9backed No | 72c | 205$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x434c…4c7dbacked Yes | 10c | 191.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 15c | 186$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…9c76backed No | 71c | 183$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c5…2dacbacked Yes | 28c | 182$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7086…f376backed No | 72c | 182$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +247.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…136bbacked Yes | 10c | 177.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 169.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…8c45backed No | 71c | 162$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +101.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…a315backed No | 66c | 160$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e36…2479backed No | 77c | 157$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 78c | 152.16$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53de…b486backed No | 71c | 152$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…1700backed No | 71c | 145$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6587…4f63backed No | 77c | 145$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed Yes | 29c | 145$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +51%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2b…fd2cbacked Yes | 34c | 139$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 11c | 132.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…dc10backed Yes | 29c | 111$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3c…7cd3backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 40cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9a…6e47backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd704…cf56backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed Yes | 11c | 97.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x394a…2011backed Yes | 53c | 96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 25c | 94.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 77c | 77.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 21c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3214…f00ebacked Yes | 43c | 73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 52c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…e335backed Yes | 24c | 69.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 72c | 64.34$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed No | 57c | 61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeac…95c6backed Yes | 43c | 61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3089…92f6backed Yes | 48c | 61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +71%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x829b…5139backed Yes | 24c | 51.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 50c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…3e11backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe194…08e5backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…9b29backed No | 72c | 49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 55c | 48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -11.1wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c19…4bbbbacked Yes | 44c | 48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 26c | 47.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +91%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ad…0acdbacked Yes | 30c | 45.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a2…1003backed Yes | 44c | 44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe56c…37ddbacked Yes | 43c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…55bcbacked Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc6…d63abacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4be…58f2backed Yes | 28c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd895…2980backed Yes | 44c | 39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b16…e724backed Yes | 44c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…aa3cbacked No | 57c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe335…cd12backed Yes | 29c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d5f6backed No | 57c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7218…c908backed Yes | 44c | 35.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…2705backed Yes | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf15a…010abacked Yes | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1716…6d63backed Yes | 48c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd75b…3664backed Yes | 47c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb73f…feacbacked Yes | 42c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dac…313dbacked Yes | 48c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a71…2b93backed Yes | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf0…f098backed No | 67c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…031fbacked Yes | 43c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon and DOGE cut 100-150k employees in 2025?this page
- Will Elon and DOGE cut 150-200k employees in 2025?No won
- Will Elon and DOGE cut 50-100k employees in 2025?No won
- Will Elon and DOGE cut less than 50k employees in 2025?No won
- Will Elon and DOGE cut more than 200k employees in 2025?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.