TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$646,960
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$648,231

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $646,960 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 256 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xea40…05a7backed No19c82,136$15,606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,605.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd28b…2873backed No20c69,306$13,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,861.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x913f…302dbacked Yes80c69,306$55,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,861.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No35c46,527$16,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,091.028220.7%17 W · 65 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf991…d313backed No60c18,616$11,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,119.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21d9…0e65backed Yes41c9,781$4,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,747.21742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick25cpaid+41.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes59c8,825$5,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,574.4445738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8258…f208backed Yes34c8,398$2,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,570.1650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes61c8,327$5,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,248.123145.2%14 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+105.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes37c7,339$2,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,589.162934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-48.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No12c7,336$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$892.059435.1%33 W · 61 L+13.1wins+0.14per pick21cpaid+167%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed No49c7,131$3,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,498.868122.2%18 W · 63 L-5.4wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-54.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No18c6,000$1,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,057.682437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+60.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x00a6…9343backed Yes44c5,950$2,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,3321533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2840…8361backed No42c5,295$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed No0c5,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15460%0 W · 46 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6404…f250backed No61c5,000$3,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,05010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No0c4,532$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.362560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xccdc…567bbacked No10c3,957$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3418…a3f2backed Yes34c3,777$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,476.5825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd555…e28abacked Yes76c3,414$2,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$827.234146.3%19 W · 22 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+6.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b37…6962backed No29c3,404$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003426.5%9 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-38.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7120…af58backed No29c3,346$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed Yes52c2,814$1,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,343.113455.9%19 W · 15 L+6.5wins+0.19per pick37cpaid+71.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes39c2,793$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,713.0411030.9%34 W · 76 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes53c2,676$1,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,251.241118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-44.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78b3…f028backed Yes65c2,658$1,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$933.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe0…6387backed Yes35c2,556$906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,650.091338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+49.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f72…83adbacked No64c2,500$1,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,609.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x481d…48cfbacked Yes55c2,417$1,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,075.56955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.25per pick30cpaid+367.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed No25c2,270$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.212416.7%4 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-70%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1aaa…17b6backed No2c2,263$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0704…1858backed No52c1,962$1,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,015.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d86…d560backed Yes44c1,836$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,035.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+129.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7ed…e6b7backed No36c1,685$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed No1c1,549$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.832110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfcd5…5542backed Yes34c1,549$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,021.15520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-41.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x765b…9a2fbacked No66c1,516$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00060%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No30c1,450$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.58543.5%37 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed Yes34c1,411$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$935.882420.8%5 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83d6…0489backed Yes35c1,400$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903.16560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+38.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf69f…807cbacked Yes71c1,276$905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes45c1,200$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4baf…b22bbacked Yes73c1,141$837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.04333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-54.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70f5…61cabacked Yes50c1,133$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd643…0dd4backed No27c1,100$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x170a…efecbacked No11c999.99$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdebd…4671backed No59c981.63$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x461a…4030backed Yes34c900.3$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.2966.7%6 W · 3 L+3.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+83.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No58c864.39$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.923935.9%14 W · 25 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-29.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8dc6…62e0backed No57c863.15$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.1540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8429…64bdbacked Yes36c793.64$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.93683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick49cpaid+156.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes73c785.02$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.130127.2%82 W · 219 L+1.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63c6…43a5backed Yes51c768.33$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.585653.6%30 W · 26 L+7.4wins+0.13per pick40cpaid-5.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1297…d0d0backed No42c722.07$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes55c712.83$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.8325731.5%81 W · 176 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x055c…e4adbacked No34c701.62$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.86333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-50.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed No65c666$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.9850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe860…cdaabacked No58c655.9$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.4220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1442…5a8fbacked Yes75c635.92$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0802…8cb0backed No10c600$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d85…1c11backed No27c567.9$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No26c548.55$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.7672935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa228…fbbfbacked No58c500$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf7e…d8afbacked Yes71c480.96$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.28366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc416…9f13backed Yes21c476.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc3e…e98fbacked No30c449.19$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.47616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-78%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb220…2a5dbacked No13c400$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-73.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06a2…0acbbacked Yes25c400$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No33c399.24$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.7247938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d31…9862backed No24c390.24$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.41020%2 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-55.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x98cb…aa35backed Yes54c387.5$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.86250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No9c360.88$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.061,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3cb…56b5backed No23c350$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked No46c343.09$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.261816.7%3 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-56.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4f8…f705backed No17c337.99$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.74333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-55.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a44…6d3fbacked Yes48c324$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.94837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked No18c310.73$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.042245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No18c299.99$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531051.9%2 W · 103 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-81.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed No34c289.63$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.411723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+80.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x06af…3741backed Yes74c286.68$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.68650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x771a…096fbacked Yes35c285.71$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.711612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14be…4498backed Yes22c280.71$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1224…e696backed No59c275.08$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2c8…da0ebacked Yes31c250$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.25742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick32cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d0c…4934backed Yes22c247.64$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.16333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+51.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No40c243.98$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.5757426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf12e…bf0fbacked Yes77c227.62$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No26c226.35$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2728828.5%82 W · 206 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No5c225.55$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9525122.7%57 W · 194 L-9.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked No18c220.71$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.07922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-65.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5911…7ccfbacked No16c210$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54f5…d9c7backed No20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4070%0 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe228…2118backed No60c200$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2478…2e62backed No42c200$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.33450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2690…1916backed No26c195.81$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ee8…1805backed No55c188.26$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.45425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-61.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb9…7b80backed No42c185$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.01560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+146.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2328…5adabacked No16c180.31$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00cd…eef4backed Yes36c173.17$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+180.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.