AI · resolved market
Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5279dbd8b32433e98585cbebc266172d614d74e17a27a2da91ec6681f12ba2dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $646,960
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $648,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $646,960 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 256 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea40…05a7backed No | 19c | 82,136$15,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,605.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28b…2873backed No | 20c | 69,306$13,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,861.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…302dbacked Yes | 80c | 69,306$55,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,861.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 35c | 46,527$16,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,091.02 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf991…d313backed No | 60c | 18,616$11,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,119.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…0e65backed Yes | 41c | 9,781$4,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,747.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 59c | 8,825$5,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,574.44 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8258…f208backed Yes | 34c | 8,398$2,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,570.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 61c | 8,327$5,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,248.12 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 37c | 7,339$2,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,589.16 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 12c | 7,336$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.05 | 94 | 35.1%33 W · 61 L | +13.1wins | +0.14per pick | 21cpaid | +167%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 49c | 7,131$3,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,498.86 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 18c | 6,000$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.68 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 44c | 5,950$2,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,332 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2840…8361backed No | 42c | 5,295$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed No | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 0%0 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6404…f250backed No | 61c | 5,000$3,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,050 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 0c | 4,532$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked No | 10c | 3,957$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3418…a3f2backed Yes | 34c | 3,777$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,476.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked Yes | 76c | 3,414$2,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.23 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b37…6962backed No | 29c | 3,404$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7120…af58backed No | 29c | 3,346$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 52c | 2,814$1,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,343.11 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 39c | 2,793$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,713.04 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes | 53c | 2,676$1,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,251.24 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b3…f028backed Yes | 65c | 2,658$1,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…6387backed Yes | 35c | 2,556$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650.09 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…83adbacked No | 64c | 2,500$1,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,609.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481d…48cfbacked Yes | 55c | 2,417$1,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,075.56 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 30cpaid | +367.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed No | 25c | 2,270$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.21 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -70%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…17b6backed No | 2c | 2,263$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0704…1858backed No | 52c | 1,962$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…d560backed Yes | 44c | 1,836$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +129.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ed…e6b7backed No | 36c | 1,685$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 1c | 1,549$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd5…5542backed Yes | 34c | 1,549$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…9a2fbacked No | 66c | 1,516$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 30c | 1,450$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.5 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 34c | 1,411$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935.88 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d6…0489backed Yes | 35c | 1,400$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf69f…807cbacked Yes | 71c | 1,276$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 45c | 1,200$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4baf…b22bbacked Yes | 73c | 1,141$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f5…61cabacked Yes | 50c | 1,133$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…0dd4backed No | 27c | 1,100$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170a…efecbacked No | 11c | 999.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdebd…4671backed No | 59c | 981.63$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed Yes | 34c | 900.3$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 58c | 864.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.92 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed No | 57c | 863.15$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8429…64bdbacked Yes | 36c | 793.64$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.93 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 49cpaid | +156.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 73c | 785.02$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.1 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed Yes | 51c | 768.33$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.58 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +7.4wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1297…d0d0backed No | 42c | 722.07$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 55c | 712.83$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.83 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x055c…e4adbacked No | 34c | 701.62$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 65c | 666$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe860…cdaabacked No | 58c | 655.9$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1442…5a8fbacked Yes | 75c | 635.92$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0802…8cb0backed No | 10c | 600$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d85…1c11backed No | 27c | 567.9$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 26c | 548.55$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.76 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa228…fbbfbacked No | 58c | 500$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7e…d8afbacked Yes | 71c | 480.96$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc416…9f13backed Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3e…e98fbacked No | 30c | 449.19$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.47 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -78%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…2a5dbacked No | 13c | 400$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0acbbacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 33c | 399.24$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.72 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed No | 24c | 390.24$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.4 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…aa35backed Yes | 54c | 387.5$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 9c | 360.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3cb…56b5backed No | 23c | 350$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked No | 46c | 343.09$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.26 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f8…f705backed No | 17c | 337.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…6d3fbacked Yes | 48c | 324$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 18c | 310.73$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 18c | 299.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 105 | 1.9%2 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 34c | 289.63$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.41 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06af…3741backed Yes | 74c | 286.68$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x771a…096fbacked Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14be…4498backed Yes | 22c | 280.71$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1224…e696backed No | 59c | 275.08$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c8…da0ebacked Yes | 31c | 250$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0c…4934backed Yes | 22c | 247.64$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 40c | 243.98$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.57 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf12e…bf0fbacked Yes | 77c | 227.62$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 26c | 226.35$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.27 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 5c | 225.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked No | 18c | 220.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5911…7ccfbacked No | 16c | 210$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f5…d9c7backed No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…2118backed No | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed No | 42c | 200$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2690…1916backed No | 26c | 195.81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee8…1805backed No | 55c | 188.26$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…7b80backed No | 42c | 185$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +146.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2328…5adabacked No | 16c | 180.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00cd…eef4backed Yes | 36c | 173.17$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +180.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.