TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Space · resolved market

Will Elon be worth $500b before March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$93,123
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$98,154

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,123 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Space
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xabe9…09b5backed Yes4c7,965$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No67c7,012$4,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,309.34633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-49.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6319…adefbacked Yes11c5,253$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fda…01d5backed Yes11c4,867$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd06b…4faebacked Yes24c4,461$1,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,070.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0aae…c6c4backed No69c1,730$1,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes17c1,716$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes17c1,457$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes30c1,374$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes31c1,262$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.792733.3%9 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes38c1,225$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.99540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x346c…a160backed No69c1,140$785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45b4…7d8fbacked Yes1c1,094$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed No74c1,078$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.14540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-43.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x444e…01d0backed No75c1,012$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2531100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Yes17c999.99$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ea0…27f4backed Yes1c950.27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93b4…cbfdbacked No77c931.93$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.611030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-59%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes23c756.05$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.89333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-57.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x440d…55e6backed Yes27c604.4$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.21333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-46.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8eac…3600backed Yes24c573.35$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.6633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-49.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc44a…a403backed Yes31c514.41$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd42b…48c8backed Yes21c505.23$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+24.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes10c469.98$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6b…bfacbacked Yes44c457.85$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2526…32f6backed Yes26c437.05$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes16c412.51$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.753910.3%4 W · 35 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-45.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3970…c828backed Yes23c407.33$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.47250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b7b…f74ebacked No75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-33.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6476…0a70backed Yes26c370.97$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28de…a1fdbacked No70c357$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58b5…7340backed Yes34c349.99$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x048a…879ebacked Yes3c348$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed Yes3c341.26$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.79100%0 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c7e…4a5bbacked Yes30c333.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63a7…4ddfbacked Yes16c312.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13cf…788dbacked Yes16c312.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0609…b093backed Yes16c312.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes5c233.54$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.58120%0 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72ad…f321backed Yes15c222.67$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.94250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+35.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7a7…f445backed Yes26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66cc…01adbacked Yes20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d6b…b59bbacked Yes25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60dd…f6b6backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb21…51bebacked Yes25c193.6$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c9b…b444backed Yes24c191.4$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7c…a12abacked Yes21c160$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes22c157.64$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.36633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+23.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed No76c140$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde02…b7a6backed No76c131.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d83…0bb9backed Yes46c130$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes15c124.92$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.13812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes25c113.35$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.341127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick43cpaid-56.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes25c113.35$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5da6…388fbacked Yes14c100.49$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes35c100.1$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.042040%8 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ec…57d5backed No75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25560%3 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.33per pick27cpaid+106.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked No72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bba…b571backed No75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd89b…7945backed No59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e94…7670backed No71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53e9…d0babacked No78c97.85$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes39c96.47$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.341050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes30c95$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.33742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+52.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x51a4…dd44backed No79c93.92$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6a9…0729backed No75c93.33$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Yes26c80$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-66.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes28c80$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.16per pick43cpaid-53.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed No74c74$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40fc…6460backed Yes40c70$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9eb6…e8f0backed No80c70$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1816…4dccbacked No77c68.22$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86eb…1725backed No75c66.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No78c61.27$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.553531.4%11 W · 24 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-28.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0e8…2a81backed Yes33c60.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bc3…aca4backed Yes23c60$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc87b…5987backed No57c54.86$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+74.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No63c52.45$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.462015%3 W · 17 L-4.5wins-0.23per pick38cpaid-75.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.51421.4%3 W · 11 L-4.2wins-0.30per pick52cpaid-69.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5838…3636backed No61c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.51752.9%9 W · 8 L+4.1wins+0.24per pick29cpaid+135.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6297…517ebacked Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b7a…4817backed No74c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a94…04afbacked No61c49.18$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked No70c48.64$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.74560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+45%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf86f…aa00backed Yes40c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe82…7797backed Yes38c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xad98…79e8backed Yes29c38.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4470…1dd2backed No69c36.11$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8744…867bbacked No75c33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c8…cb07backed No65c32.38$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0540…f24abacked No63c30.53$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x560b…d761backed No58c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cec…dc3ebacked No68c29.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f8…0e46backed No77c25.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e4a…0061backed No80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x536c…7c84backed Yes46c23.11$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a3a…b402backed No59c19.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.