TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Total crypto market cap over $4 trillion on Jan 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$659,915
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$650,014

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $659,915 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 354 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes5c24,587$1,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,316.73859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5d7…c5afbacked Yes14c20,042$2,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,781.19944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8ce…d549backed Yes9c19,182$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,70030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa98…4a57backed Yes16c16,591$2,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,635.68250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99d7…d918backed Yes34c15,458$5,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,242.97432.4%24 W · 50 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fe9…fecdbacked Yes5c13,418$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x914f…1025backed Yes7c11,897$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7896…3e00backed Yes37c10,000$3,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,711.4730%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f7b…154bbacked Yes6c9,859$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6182524%6 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed No62c9,426$5,847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,578.483234.4%11 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-37.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc631…76f6backed Yes10c8,563$882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$882.435742.1%24 W · 33 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe893…f215backed Yes5c8,330$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.422313%3 W · 20 L-4.4wins-0.19per pick32cpaid-76.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7f32…3e2cbacked Yes3c8,168$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.88812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-79.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed No53c7,273$3,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,423.3450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x12da…d12dbacked No62c6,858$4,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,621.992100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdae…b808backed Yes1c6,500$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.78520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff3d…3fddbacked No63c6,429$4,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,390.86366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42a3…b45fbacked Yes18c6,022$1,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,083.5330%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e25…ff35backed No50c5,115$2,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,559.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3f8…3ef8backed Yes4c4,272$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.5940%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06df…4e7abacked Yes8c4,000$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.351020%2 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-63.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d8…a0a6backed Yes15c3,933$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.152842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6e0…8412backed Yes9c3,929$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.432416.7%4 W · 20 L-3.6wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes15c3,617$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.0317544.6%78 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c23…b248backed Yes13c3,357$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.754734%16 W · 31 L-5.9wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-43.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf249…8662backed Yes15c3,333$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe17…6668backed Yes7c3,300$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes8c3,291$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.251811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xef58…2f14backed Yes9c3,282$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-47.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fad…2765backed Yes9c3,245$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.1730%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x495f…506abacked No53c3,075$1,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,430.33560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80e0…7ffabacked No67c3,023$2,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$984.932050%10 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+33.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6975…9611backed No30c2,801$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,960.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea67…4691backed No30c2,800$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9601100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ce8…23d5backed No30c2,800$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9601100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14ae…fc14backed No30c2,800$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9601100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c67…f54bbacked No30c2,800$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9601100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa70…8f17backed Yes22c2,732$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.162846.4%13 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-25%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1de8…5d68backed No30c2,700$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8901100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x461a…4030backed No61c2,602$1,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,014.625433.3%18 W · 36 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No76c2,588$1,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.3799629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb1bd…b9a1backed No65c2,555$1,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$895.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa244…8e63backed Yes20c2,529$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4962528%7 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-56.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d3b…4c88backed Yes8c2,518$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.4150%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x87ef…2c77backed Yes6c2,476$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.54911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-70.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x234b…f13ebacked Yes9c2,397$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35f8…1269backed Yes13c2,385$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b4c…e290backed Yes13c2,385$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.03333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e50…1fbdbacked Yes10c2,331$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x582c…75debacked No44c2,274$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,273.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0e8…2688backed Yes10c2,211$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.52633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-56.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33da…2c3ebacked Yes8c2,193$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes15c2,192$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.243441.2%14 W · 20 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x42a2…8189backed Yes70c2,100$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,47010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes11c2,074$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.5796319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403735.1%13 W · 24 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick24cpaid-19.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0c49…caefbacked No39c1,927$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,167.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+153.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dd5…a7f8backed No30c1,900$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3301100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bda…c470backed No30c1,900$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3301100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ff8…21bdbacked No30c1,900$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3301100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8074…2d60backed No31c1,900$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3111100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1004…5929backed No31c1,900$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3111100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86f0…be32backed Yes9c1,695$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.15933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-39.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x23b0…630abacked Yes27c1,611$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7709…5852backed Yes19c1,601$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96a4…4d01backed No47c1,540$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$810.852516%4 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-74.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0681…f713backed No66c1,500$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6de…4310backed Yes69c1,500$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,03510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4bd…22cfbacked Yes69c1,457$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,005.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82f1…5cd2backed Yes70c1,420$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x346c…a160backed No61c1,419$866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.46540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29d3…9a38backed Yes70c1,411$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987.710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ce6…77e1backed Yes70c1,410$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3d7…2124backed Yes70c1,401$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ddb…2e80backed Yes70c1,401$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ef7…5a49backed Yes70c1,400$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb265…12c7backed Yes70c1,400$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x48c0…2760backed Yes70c1,399$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6d0…202fbacked Yes70c1,390$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd96e…c485backed Yes70c1,389$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$972.310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7644…3189backed Yes70c1,380$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcd1…2a75backed Yes70c1,300$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x78a3…78f0backed Yes15c1,288$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2be…cb3fbacked Yes56c1,234$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1813…0b73backed No73c1,212$885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46df…3f84backed Yes10c1,200$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed Yes14c1,165$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.1210834.3%37 W · 71 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3970…c828backed Yes25c1,114$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.740%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0774…7d51backed No30c1,100$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7701100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38c8…259abacked Yes56c1,100$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x880a…308ebacked Yes13c1,081$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.3930%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a5e…561dbacked Yes10c1,071$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.240%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7cc8…68a4backed No71c1,041$742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.41728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.26per pick55cpaid-57.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x742c…6844backed Yes10c1,035$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.69425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid-30.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No62c1,011$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.3117225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb87d…85f3backed Yes10c1,008$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-72.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No20c1,007$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$807.722347.5%106 W · 117 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf9b…fe0fbacked Yes3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7869…d49abacked Yes69c1,000$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b78…0f3abacked Yes69c1,000$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.