TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be greater than 2%?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$586,032
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$614,682

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $586,032 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 320 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2aac…1b36backed Yes65c38,942$25,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,799.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa72…53b0backed Yes46c29,034$13,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,678.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbde…6a77backed No54c29,034$15,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,678.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes72c27,277$19,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,635.723426.5%9 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+76.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed No31c26,107$8,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,078.618636%31 W · 55 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f55…ce1bbacked No27c21,679$5,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,959.3120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd93c…689cbacked Yes70c21,581$15,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,534.34944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+43.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes63c17,190$10,789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,401.46023.3%14 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+80.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes73c14,856$10,903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,953.25450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+91.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff20…2efcbacked Yes71c14,134$10,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,033.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+39.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b03…e8afbacked No28c13,668$3,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,847.674027.5%11 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2684…d3d6backed No34c13,607$4,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,677.152630.8%8 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaeb…a2a5backed Yes42c13,604$5,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,920.24333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes79c10,000$7,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,103.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes67c8,383$5,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,725.435022%11 W · 39 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-20.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x650b…e7d8backed Yes75c8,090$6,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,050.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd8…0fe9backed No22c7,725$1,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,662.2810433.7%35 W · 69 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x20f9…4cdbbacked Yes48c7,412$3,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,825.39333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-31.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98fa…d698backed No28c7,060$1,979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,979.185032%16 W · 34 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb525…705bbacked No28c6,780$1,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,874.42540%10 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Yes71c6,108$4,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,744.431526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe10…95cbbacked No33c5,946$1,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,944.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa638…6318backed Yes79c5,100$4,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,085.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdfc…288cbacked Yes44c5,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,800580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+37.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0826…bcbcbacked No33c4,630$1,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,509.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fe2…87c5backed No52c4,078$2,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,106.11250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No38c3,960$1,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,510.169144%40 W · 51 L-8.3wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-20.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa796…d258backed Yes76c3,952$2,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$955.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes75c3,810$2,877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$933.77122.5%16 W · 55 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-54.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed No20c3,753$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.573228.1%9 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+159%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8a3…cd82backed No67c3,540$2,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,385.39450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-30.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes75c3,234$2,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814.141637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked Yes70c3,182$2,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$964.632045%9 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ae9…5f74backed Yes69c3,177$2,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$980.18450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes65c2,691$1,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943.231330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-30.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed Yes70c2,633$1,843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.9322433.9%76 W · 148 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+69%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a34…47e9backed No67c2,500$1,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,68510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa472…45aebacked Yes16c2,288$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,929.42540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+66.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a6d…60c8backed Yes56c2,267$1,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,008.11366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No35c2,247$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.2815148.3%73 W · 78 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x30a9…a313backed No66c2,055$1,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,364.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x65ab…070ebacked No29c1,850$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5291435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…a23ebacked Yes45c1,777$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$983.51333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed No76c1,665$1,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,269.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No55c1,636$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9001435.7%5 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick20cpaid+182.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8a7b…782fbacked No21c1,626$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.36126.2%16 W · 45 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No35c1,600$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.116532.3%21 W · 44 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-24.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes17c1,562$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,296.5966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+80.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked No28c1,553$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.435819%11 W · 47 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes75c1,508$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.016827.9%19 W · 49 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed No33c1,483$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.95137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick21cpaid-88.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x24ce…af12backed Yes32c1,479$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,009.751323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa826…dd25backed No26c1,437$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16be…23d9backed No27c1,353$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.41533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9fa…f2f0backed Yes78c1,313$1,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.02742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x06a2…0acbbacked No36c1,300$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.981717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked Yes80c1,250$997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.5944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c15…c9dbbacked Yes71c1,235$876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.1666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x09a5…b5c3backed No24c1,205$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.8742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid-19.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes77c1,191$912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a1f…ec73backed Yes44c1,000$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+42.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked No68c1,000$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e40…c89dbacked No19c1,000$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc3e…e98fbacked Yes71c938.89$668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.89250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-29.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed No13c840.22$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.6728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid+24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc24a…fdbcbacked No46c834.1$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.624731.9%15 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No25c818.71$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.932524%6 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-39.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No30c816.62$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.0414024.3%34 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64c6…a070backed Yes72c815$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.3714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-80.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x76c4…bbc5backed Yes25c803.08$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.08450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+81%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe577…6c42backed Yes80c803$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.09250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-37.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1734…4ac4backed No23c800$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1639…f665backed Yes77c800$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1841100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x933b…ba50backed Yes72c770$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+105.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked No17c719.03$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.4111039.1%43 W · 67 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+115.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed No35c718.44$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.7330%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x482b…3266backed No26c717.61$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.45333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-57.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x018a…4651backed No31c705.99$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.212123.8%5 W · 16 L-3.8wins-0.18per pick42cpaid-37.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x825e…904fbacked No14c650.48$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.72837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabda…d0cbbacked Yes79c632.91$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0b7…e1dfbacked No33c627.19$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88e1…8290backed Yes69c601.13$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.132100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc980…ef3dbacked Yes32c600$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x054a…013fbacked No68c600$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes74c569.08$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.32850%14 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+31.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc7c…132ebacked Yes53c566.23$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No28c558.75$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.1517528%49 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc639…c5a2backed Yes77c551.43$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.43757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54e8…21b7backed No38c540$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd607…3b70backed No29c530$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.7333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x169e…dd29backed Yes78c518.91$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.18250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-35.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb38…a674backed Yes77c514.84$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2a6…2295backed No58c510$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9997…1226backed Yes42c510$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9eea…281dbacked No48c500$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2401421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-49.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Yes53c500$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2893…1534backed Yes76c500$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1201100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3ce…d9dfbacked Yes78c500$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes69c465.38$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.881127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-52.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf965…ccb0backed Yes17c460.33$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+485.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.