Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0077857a1825c2e441cb0d8e4259ed6d1ff97c68ea1d5b5dec16bb67182a5725
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $453,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $314,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $453,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 3c | 18,093$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.67 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 12,050$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.66 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 1c | 12,000$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.09 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 11,719$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.5 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 2c | 11,651$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.17 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…8a04backed Yes | 1c | 11,457$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.67 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes | 3c | 11,072$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.22 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 1c | 10,257$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e6…1fb3backed Yes | 1c | 8,949$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…01d5backed Yes | 1c | 7,587$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…c9dbbacked Yes | 2c | 7,240$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.69 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes | 1c | 5,209$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16be…23d9backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.74 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0673…2e81backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 1c | 4,391$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2684…d3d6backed Yes | 13c | 4,322$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.19 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 1c | 4,303$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.88 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc30c…6509backed Yes | 2c | 3,477$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cad…9372backed Yes | 2c | 3,057$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab5b…9b70backed Yes | 29c | 2,991$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,473$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.99 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0acbbacked Yes | 7c | 2,400$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.91 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2955…a7a2backed Yes | 9c | 2,138$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13c2…0403backed Yes | 8c | 2,085$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98fa…d698backed Yes | 1c | 2,044$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…cddabacked Yes | 7c | 2,000$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb0…519ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,765$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6779…0400backed Yes | 6c | 1,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf969…7ce8backed Yes | 1c | 1,526$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…9b2ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,400$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c2…5e1abacked Yes | 2c | 1,349$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…25c0backed Yes | 1c | 1,138$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c6…03cdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d1…87a7backed Yes | 2c | 1,041$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79de…7935backed Yes | 2c | 1,034$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0d…5fefbacked Yes | 2c | 1,030$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8113…a63abacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc62f…f330backed Yes | 2c | 998.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked No | 80c | 948.68$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x355f…0df8backed Yes | 1c | 883$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…4238backed Yes | 1c | 882.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf83…5059backed Yes | 2c | 860$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…4632backed Yes | 2c | 806$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf59f…f1dabacked Yes | 2c | 671$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 16c | 640$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28fd…fa9cbacked Yes | 2c | 600$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8f…4b8abacked Yes | 2c | 539.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…9dc7backed Yes | 19c | 514.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…bce0backed Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 494.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…b49fbacked Yes | 12c | 416.31$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 7c | 343.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5654backed Yes | 25c | 198.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed Yes | 7c | 198.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 20c | 170$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 90 | 24.4%22 W · 68 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 13c | 140$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfc…54e5backed Yes | 27c | 106.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 12c | 105.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb22…7ef9backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 76c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 22c | 56.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a3…cd82backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…bbc1backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%?this page
- Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between -1% and -2%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 1% and 0%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 2% and 1%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be greater than 2%?Yes won
- Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be less than 2%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.