Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between -1% and -2%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x056922c3d59d4bc1e9897635dba92a7bb9d49418b5ab3681aaeff3b96e996749
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $274,453
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $203,204
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $274,453 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 0c | 15,350$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…8a04backed Yes | 0c | 11,630$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 11,543$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.74 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes | 6c | 10,998$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.82 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 9,839$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…01d5backed Yes | 0c | 7,117$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0673…2e81backed Yes | 1c | 4,581$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 3,412$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6779…0400backed Yes | 3c | 3,051$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 2c | 2,844$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.48 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 1c | 2,645$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc30c…6509backed Yes | 2c | 2,539$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,500$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab5b…9b70backed Yes | 16c | 2,352$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…cddabacked Yes | 6c | 2,000$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.31 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c6…03cdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,832$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0acbbacked Yes | 5c | 1,500$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.55 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf969…7ce8backed Yes | 1c | 1,255$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…4238backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2131…1afdbacked Yes | 1c | 887$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 487.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 442.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…bae4backed Yes | 5c | 408.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 8c | 400$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…b49fbacked Yes | 8c | 352.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…bbc1backed Yes | 12c | 171$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb22…7ef9backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24a0…9d60backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between -1% and -2%?this page
- Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 1% and 0%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 2% and 1%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be greater than 2%?Yes won
- Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be less than 2%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.