TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 2% and 1%?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$221,594
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$163,354

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $221,594 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes20c37,080$7,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,401.1910433.7%35 W · 69 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes20c21,011$4,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,116.618636%31 W · 55 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b03…e8afbacked Yes23c14,232$3,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,316.754027.5%11 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2684…d3d6backed Yes19c10,339$1,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,978.442630.8%8 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98fa…d698backed Yes24c7,000$1,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,693.065032%16 W · 34 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes17c6,147$1,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,064.033228.1%9 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+159%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes24c5,041$1,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,195.874731.9%15 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes18c4,500$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.682748.1%13 W · 14 L+5.2wins+0.19per pick29cpaid+28.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0ae9…5f74backed Yes22c4,158$916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$916.44450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa927…878abacked Yes13c2,801$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3161…daf5backed Yes23c2,770$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.863426.5%9 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09a5…b5c3backed Yes19c2,719$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.09742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid-19.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c2,619$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.175614.3%8 W · 48 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-37.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb525…705bbacked Yes24c2,510$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.552540%10 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No79c2,501$1,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.319144%40 W · 51 L-8.3wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-20.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2aac…1b36backed Yes18c2,134$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.33366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes24c2,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc1d…f76ebacked Yes21c1,883$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes20c1,636$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.21714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-48.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed Yes18c1,603$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.2922433.9%76 W · 148 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+69%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a14…6d9ebacked Yes16c1,559$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24ce…af12backed Yes23c1,479$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.361323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8b9…1fe3backed Yes20c1,289$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2948backed Yes16c1,286$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.76933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f22…fdd3backed Yes21c1,213$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64c6…a070backed Yes19c1,209$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.69714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-80.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c5b…e6fdbacked Yes27c1,204$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45a1…d31fbacked Yes14c999.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140150%0 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Yes18c999.98$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7b4…e4a0backed Yes20c978.41$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a6d…60c8backed Yes25c978.04$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.45366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes12c900$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1046126.2%16 W · 45 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b63…4b44backed Yes21c847.98$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.123231.3%10 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c09…a632backed Yes20c800$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+22.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06a2…0acbbacked Yes16c799.99$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1291717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9fa…f2f0backed Yes18c780.9$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.44742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes25c752.64$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.414024.3%34 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd164…d0abbacked Yes20c723.89$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6779…0400backed Yes14c722.45$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc62f…f330backed Yes17c714.29$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe577…6c42backed Yes16c703$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.54250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-37.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No78c671.94$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.692524%6 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-39.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd572…7bdabacked Yes21c577.98$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes23c571$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.331330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-30.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa147…3fccbacked No77c519.48$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.48450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0ba…99f0backed Yes20c518.3$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf065…c418backed Yes19c515$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.451553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9eea…281dbacked Yes17c500$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-49.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes17c499.99$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.899024.4%22 W · 68 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccdc…567bbacked Yes13c450$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick10cpaid+72.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbdbd…8d71backed Yes18c414.91$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7629…cddabacked Yes18c400$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-56.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06cc…ded1backed Yes26c390.95$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4eb8…9231backed Yes20c380.37$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.05540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x746e…4238backed Yes27c371.89$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-60.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56ab…9c67backed Yes23c344.44$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid+40%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9ac…06c5backed Yes17c344.12$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick35cpaid+71.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa70…8f17backed Yes22c328$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.16475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+41.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd737…71bbbacked Yes18c320$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.11241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa472…45aebacked Yes17c300$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+66.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c97…035fbacked Yes18c300$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No73c300$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816532.3%21 W · 44 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-24.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e75…01f9backed Yes17c300$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No78c297.8$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.2115148.3%73 W · 78 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d8f…4b8abacked Yes20c296.55$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.6130%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes17c295$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6514325.2%36 W · 107 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c90…f36cbacked Yes15c273.25$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-52.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes13c271$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.482524%6 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid-42.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cad…9372backed Yes25c265.73$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92c7…c136backed Yes17c244.11$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.222532%8 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-37.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes20c236.98$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.41040%4 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+34.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9359…b49fbacked Yes26c215.38$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5660%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e12…ef6ebacked Yes24c208.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bec…56d0backed Yes28c207.14$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-22.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes26c205$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.31030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b1c…320ebacked Yes13c203.85$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2640%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x659c…8dfcbacked Yes25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1939…0f41backed Yes27c200$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b0d…1744backed Yes17c200$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331010%1 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-57.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf650…1c51backed Yes18c200$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.481942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdf7…0426backed Yes19c194.84$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.38714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick45cpaid-69.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed No78c181$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.91323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-63.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes22c173.1$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.652611.5%3 W · 23 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-80.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xec28…10ebbacked Yes19c157.89$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Yes25c150$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes19c148$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5920242.1%85 W · 117 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x08ec…b5fcbacked No80c145.75$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.751346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45ab…5d12backed Yes18c138.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes16c136.01$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.761637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcced…9ffebacked No79c129$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.52152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe180…889bbacked Yes20c122$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf9d…a540backed No76c121.98$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.261145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-31%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5508…4380backed Yes25c120$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65ce…67f4backed Yes17c117.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-57.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb167…f6e8backed Yes24c110$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.41030%3 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfe3…fa75backed Yes19c105.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65ab…070ebacked Yes22c105$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.11435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40b7…b1d3backed Yes21c100.89$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01eb…4e70backed Yes27c100.37$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4fd…c893backed Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.