TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,488,802
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,911,850

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,488,802 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 561 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe264…7a75backed Yes14c254,013$34,687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,687.171625%4 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc54…d4dcbacked Yes9c244,129$22,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,716.82147.1%1 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick7cpaid-49%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes1c201,948$2,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,132.6918315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x115d…f608backed Yes0c199,999$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%0 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes2c125,840$2,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,939.82659.2%6 W · 59 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-77.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc714…f955backed Yes11c104,796$11,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,133.38616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-51.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeae5…33c1backed Yes11c104,034$11,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,50010315.5%16 W · 87 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick18cpaid+28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b5a…00f2backed Yes9c100,000$9,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes1c93,750$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.571488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9043…8b7bbacked Yes1c89,781$1,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,027.3670%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x226a…3e38backed Yes3c50,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30070%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebaa…abacbacked Yes0c49,999$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50362.8%1 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-68.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae0f…40f9backed Yes11c45,101$4,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,999.12728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid-19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff81…eed5backed Yes9c37,000$3,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,240.16812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-69.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0107…7ec3backed Yes8c36,523$2,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,876.081513.3%2 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-49%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1f8…5854backed Yes18c33,261$5,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,883.8230%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes0c26,802$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.411070%0 W · 107 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5564…f786backed Yes14c23,630$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes4c23,426$829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$829.218010%8 W · 72 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64cf…8a8abacked Yes11c23,266$2,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,567.43812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick30cpaid-76.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9bf…7424backed Yes11c22,126$2,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,511.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7608…ab97backed Yes16c21,878$3,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50350%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8655…3a32backed Yes5c21,354$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes7c20,372$1,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,396.294721.3%10 W · 37 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x249b…5df1backed Yes8c18,115$1,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,402.967619.7%15 W · 61 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64ad…dd6dbacked Yes1c17,920$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd3…3afebacked Yes8c17,900$1,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,434.48248.3%2 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-55.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9417…67d4backed Yes0c16,990$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b30…76f4backed Yes9c16,762$1,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,519.6460%0 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ebb…5303backed Yes0c16,490$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f36…c6d2backed Yes6c16,209$907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$907.3870%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9099…f96abacked Yes14c15,443$2,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,220250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e55…0a9abacked Yes0c15,435$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7133…438abacked Yes8c15,215$1,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,197.04137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-80.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2eb9…9d60backed Yes0c15,075$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa10a…28b1backed Yes11c14,964$1,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6251513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b9c…2d40backed Yes0c14,120$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d10…c509backed Yes0c14,000$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2658…8c48backed Yes0c14,000$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd980…5be0backed Yes6c13,997$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812.6611210.7%12 W · 100 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+120.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa0a…8ed0backed Yes0c13,740$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c9b…2a64backed Yes0c13,500$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33af…675ebacked Yes6c13,492$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.13280%0 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f5d…e08bbacked Yes0c13,382$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9c7…77b8backed Yes0c13,130$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x991b…0c58backed Yes0c13,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca00…153dbacked Yes0c13,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5ee…894bbacked Yes8c13,000$1,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02990%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x33b1…22e9backed Yes13c12,995$1,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,647.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0aea…6971backed Yes0c12,960$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe56a…e1cdbacked Yes0c12,960$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes2c12,532$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.311015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c01…29c4backed Yes0c12,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac7e…9265backed Yes0c12,475$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72ea…800abacked Yes8c12,471$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.993915.4%6 W · 33 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-45.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde7a…2966backed Yes8c12,228$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984.3560%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6345…8bf3backed Yes16c12,056$1,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,98710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa578…465dbacked Yes0c11,575$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7558…2d70backed Yes3c11,490$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.71105.5%6 W · 104 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e78…578fbacked Yes0c11,280$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9fd…9fd7backed Yes0c11,207$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4cb…cc77backed Yes2c11,192$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08a3…a3a6backed Yes9c10,968$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.160%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1d2…b5c4backed Yes6c10,505$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b25…ba2bbacked Yes10c10,353$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+58.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1905…1f93backed Yes8c10,158$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$829.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa778…5be9backed Yes0c10,096$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc221…92a8backed Yes12c10,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c18…719cbacked Yes0c9,930$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a34…c226backed Yes3c9,652$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.643315.2%5 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick10cpaid-55.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7407…fe13backed Yes9c9,523$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$866.92219.5%2 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3917…7adbbacked Yes13c9,391$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20070%0 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe484…7b5abacked Yes7c9,379$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes11c9,050$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.1375.4%2 W · 35 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-66.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02f2…18a0backed Yes0c9,042$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca68…7aa9backed Yes12c8,709$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,014.55616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-61.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x970c…e248backed Yes5c8,635$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.52020%4 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa765…ec70backed Yes8c8,495$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.431216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-60.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5869…d117backed Yes8c8,288$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.3540%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e2c…1771backed Yes9c8,028$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.260%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd2a…9be0backed Yes6c8,015$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.0770%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c70…e76dbacked Yes12c8,010$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.5260%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbb3…af2abacked Yes7c7,967$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.6730%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a1f…57cabacked Yes5c7,910$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.68333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17a4…aa4dbacked Yes1c7,822$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4750%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcce7…c129backed Yes6c7,092$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Yes7c7,000$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.036810.3%7 W · 61 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-77.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x68e6…03e2backed Yes6c6,699$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.35128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0978…0d99backed Yes4c6,606$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.43160%0 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8f9…f940backed Yes9c6,445$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.3450%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda78…5c22backed Yes7c6,388$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.131414.3%2 W · 12 L-4.2wins-0.30per pick44cpaid-81.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xeee5…089abacked Yes0c6,335$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58bc…a883backed Yes4c6,130$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.5933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-51.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c6,098$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.731,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7c1…b554backed Yes0c6,040$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0870%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2b8…f893backed Yes9c5,751$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33ca…8ab2backed Yes0c5,734$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf11c…654fbacked Yes0c5,733$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2217…3834backed Yes10c5,633$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.6240%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35ae…eed2backed Yes14c5,624$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7801127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-56.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.