Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d0a731ba69f087ccde2a2287ffc5fda1f8228a133711a068c96dbe428f5d30f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,488,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,911,850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,488,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 561 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe264…7a75backed Yes | 14c | 254,013$34,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,687.17 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc54…d4dcbacked Yes | 9c | 244,129$22,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,716.82 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8298…b978backed Yes | 1c | 201,948$2,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,132.69 | 183 | 15.3%28 W · 155 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x115d…f608backed Yes | 0c | 199,999$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 2c | 125,840$2,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,939.82 | 65 | 9.2%6 W · 59 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc714…f955backed Yes | 11c | 104,796$11,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,133.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…33c1backed Yes | 11c | 104,034$11,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,500 | 103 | 15.5%16 W · 87 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed Yes | 9c | 100,000$9,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 1c | 93,750$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.57 | 148 | 8.8%13 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9043…8b7bbacked Yes | 1c | 89,781$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.36 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x226a…3e38backed Yes | 3c | 50,000$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebaa…abacbacked Yes | 0c | 49,999$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae0f…40f9backed Yes | 11c | 45,101$4,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,999.12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…eed5backed Yes | 9c | 37,000$3,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,240.16 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0107…7ec3backed Yes | 8c | 36,523$2,876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,876.08 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f8…5854backed Yes | 18c | 33,261$5,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,883.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda17…d901backed Yes | 0c | 26,802$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.41 | 107 | 0%0 W · 107 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5564…f786backed Yes | 14c | 23,630$3,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 4c | 23,426$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.21 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64cf…8a8abacked Yes | 11c | 23,266$2,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,567.43 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9bf…7424backed Yes | 11c | 22,126$2,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,511.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7608…ab97backed Yes | 16c | 21,878$3,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,503 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8655…3a32backed Yes | 5c | 21,354$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 7c | 20,372$1,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,396.29 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x249b…5df1backed Yes | 8c | 18,115$1,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,402.96 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…dd6dbacked Yes | 1c | 17,920$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd3…3afebacked Yes | 8c | 17,900$1,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,434.48 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…67d4backed Yes | 0c | 16,990$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b30…76f4backed Yes | 9c | 16,762$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,519.64 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebb…5303backed Yes | 0c | 16,490$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f36…c6d2backed Yes | 6c | 16,209$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.38 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…f96abacked Yes | 14c | 15,443$2,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,220 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e55…0a9abacked Yes | 0c | 15,435$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7133…438abacked Yes | 8c | 15,215$1,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197.04 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb9…9d60backed Yes | 0c | 15,075$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa10a…28b1backed Yes | 11c | 14,964$1,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,625 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9c…2d40backed Yes | 0c | 14,120$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d10…c509backed Yes | 0c | 14,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2658…8c48backed Yes | 0c | 14,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd980…5be0backed Yes | 6c | 13,997$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.66 | 112 | 10.7%12 W · 100 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0a…8ed0backed Yes | 0c | 13,740$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…2a64backed Yes | 0c | 13,500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…675ebacked Yes | 6c | 13,492$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.13 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5d…e08bbacked Yes | 0c | 13,382$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c7…77b8backed Yes | 0c | 13,130$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x991b…0c58backed Yes | 0c | 13,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca00…153dbacked Yes | 0c | 13,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ee…894bbacked Yes | 8c | 13,000$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33b1…22e9backed Yes | 13c | 12,995$1,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,647.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aea…6971backed Yes | 0c | 12,960$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe56a…e1cdbacked Yes | 0c | 12,960$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 2c | 12,532$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.31 | 101 | 5.9%6 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +121.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c01…29c4backed Yes | 0c | 12,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac7e…9265backed Yes | 0c | 12,475$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…800abacked Yes | 8c | 12,471$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.99 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde7a…2966backed Yes | 8c | 12,228$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6345…8bf3backed Yes | 16c | 12,056$1,987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,987 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…465dbacked Yes | 0c | 11,575$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7558…2d70backed Yes | 3c | 11,490$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.7 | 110 | 5.5%6 W · 104 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e78…578fbacked Yes | 0c | 11,280$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…9fd7backed Yes | 0c | 11,207$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…cc77backed Yes | 2c | 11,192$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08a3…a3a6backed Yes | 9c | 10,968$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.1 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d2…b5c4backed Yes | 6c | 10,505$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…ba2bbacked Yes | 10c | 10,353$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1905…1f93backed Yes | 8c | 10,158$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa778…5be9backed Yes | 0c | 10,096$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc221…92a8backed Yes | 12c | 10,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c18…719cbacked Yes | 0c | 9,930$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…c226backed Yes | 3c | 9,652$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.64 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7407…fe13backed Yes | 9c | 9,523$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.92 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3917…7adbbacked Yes | 13c | 9,391$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe484…7b5abacked Yes | 7c | 9,379$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes | 11c | 9,050$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.1 | 37 | 5.4%2 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02f2…18a0backed Yes | 0c | 9,042$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca68…7aa9backed Yes | 12c | 8,709$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x970c…e248backed Yes | 5c | 8,635$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.5 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa765…ec70backed Yes | 8c | 8,495$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.43 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5869…d117backed Yes | 8c | 8,288$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2c…1771backed Yes | 9c | 8,028$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2a…9be0backed Yes | 6c | 8,015$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.07 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…e76dbacked Yes | 12c | 8,010$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.52 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb3…af2abacked Yes | 7c | 7,967$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1f…57cabacked Yes | 5c | 7,910$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a4…aa4dbacked Yes | 1c | 7,822$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcce7…c129backed Yes | 6c | 7,092$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 7c | 7,000$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.03 | 68 | 10.3%7 W · 61 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68e6…03e2backed Yes | 6c | 6,699$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.35 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0978…0d99backed Yes | 4c | 6,606$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.43 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f9…f940backed Yes | 9c | 6,445$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.34 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda78…5c22backed Yes | 7c | 6,388$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.13 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeee5…089abacked Yes | 0c | 6,335$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58bc…a883backed Yes | 4c | 6,130$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 6,098$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.73 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c1…b554backed Yes | 0c | 6,040$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b8…f893backed Yes | 9c | 5,751$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ca…8ab2backed Yes | 0c | 5,734$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf11c…654fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,733$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2217…3834backed Yes | 10c | 5,633$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35ae…eed2backed Yes | 14c | 5,624$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,000 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum hit $4,400 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.