Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b1aa5ae9427bf4502cc082bced08eb23fef0776649b0e13cc3db6d5e578b725
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $323,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $305,327
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $323,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x578d…fbb3backed Yes | 70c | 58,971$41,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,930.01 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed No | 58c | 48,536$28,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,154.66 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 42c | 47,356$19,839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,517.14 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacb3…feefbacked No | 0c | 21,200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x472b…c594backed Yes | 68c | 13,134$8,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,144.46 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa601…d54ebacked No | 6c | 11,466$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.08 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…9818backed Yes | 64c | 9,989$6,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,571.8 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b1…ef97backed No | 34c | 9,665$3,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,238.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1809…4eb7backed No | 50c | 8,011$4,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,008.73 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x249c…2783backed No | 16c | 7,904$1,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,242.97 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 51c | 6,819$3,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,332.44 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 9c | 4,709$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.21 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed No | 6c | 4,010$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.58 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 4c | 3,930$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.85 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906b…fd3cbacked No | 52c | 3,130$1,641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,641.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…e76dbacked No | 36c | 3,091$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,098.63 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 20c | 2,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a38…bfe8backed No | 32c | 2,457$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.11 | 124 | 31.5%39 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed Yes | 63c | 2,421$1,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.35 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…2144backed No | 11c | 2,349$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.04 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed No | 36c | 2,050$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…ae33backed Yes | 62c | 2,000$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb5…a393backed No | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 167 | 61.7%103 W · 64 L | +19.6wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x200c…4df8backed No | 11c | 2,000$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 74c | 1,980$1,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.71 | 73 | 27.4%20 W · 53 L | -9.1wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe03d…189abacked No | 27c | 1,809$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.69 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8252…e65cbacked No | 8c | 1,804$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.84 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…b193backed No | 30c | 1,680$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 65c | 1,550$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 6c | 1,500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed No | 49c | 1,418$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…ab8ebacked No | 12c | 1,227$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…696dbacked Yes | 43c | 1,163$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 11c | 1,015$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.15 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed No | 5c | 1,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 120 | 20%24 W · 96 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba2…4f27backed No | 5c | 1,000$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c49…fbebbacked No | 15c | 973.83$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8611…925fbacked No | 9c | 907.6$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes | 48c | 756$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.56 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45ef…d3f6backed No | 20c | 750$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.65 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8126…d776backed No | 15c | 718$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.68 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 714$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 7c | 707$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 6c | 661$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked No | 58c | 600$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13bb…c279backed No | 9c | 537.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…12febacked No | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd69b…1ed8backed No | 10c | 495.68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +6.4wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +110%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x627a…cdc2backed No | 64c | 400$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -48%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed No | 64c | 334$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.76 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae2b…9cc3backed Yes | 64c | 332.95$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0b…1d63backed No | 14c | 311$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97a7…49f7backed No | 4c | 305.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fbe…d7e1backed No | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa94f…0045backed No | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed Yes | 36c | 278.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed Yes | 70c | 274.58$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.5 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked No | 4c | 244.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…686fbacked No | 74c | 241$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1442…5a8fbacked Yes | 64c | 207$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa68…94a7backed No | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb15d…2851backed Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdd…f771backed Yes | 76c | 197.63$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.63 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -82%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2a…0e15backed No | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x523f…f7dcbacked No | 64c | 156.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4329…b63bbacked Yes | 43c | 135.3$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.49 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x241c…0557backed Yes | 41c | 120$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.7 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aac…ab49backed Yes | 43c | 115.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed No | 74c | 114$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.36 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 21c | 100.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…7d80backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x274a…9cc0backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe45…a342backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x608c…39c9backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60f6…41a9backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 53c | 90.28$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 116 | 19%22 W · 94 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -62%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 81$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -7.9wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc440…2e0ebacked No | 55c | 80.51$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…6856backed No | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed Yes | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…2fe0backed No | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77cc…f51fbacked No | 15c | 75.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x970c…e248backed No | 34c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4296…338ebacked No | 21c | 62.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c21…1142backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…5788backed No | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…4f84backed No | 34c | 59.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 67c | 55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7f…be25backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 74cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa934…6080backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…7da5backed No | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…438dbacked No | 61c | 48.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 305 | 31.1%95 W · 210 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f79…7148backed Yes | 78c | 46.01$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e77…21a9backed Yes | 79c | 41.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 32cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked Yes | 71c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…f74ebacked No | 68c | 34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf7…1645backed Yes | 69c | 31.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcab5…3621backed Yes | 67c | 28.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1282…519abacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,000 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum hit $4,400 by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31?No won
- Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.