TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$323,443
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$305,327

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $323,443 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x578d…fbb3backed Yes70c58,971$41,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,930.011662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd06f…d4a6backed No58c48,536$28,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,154.662055%11 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes42c47,356$19,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,517.1437745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xacb3…feefbacked No0c21,200$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x472b…c594backed Yes68c13,134$8,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,144.462653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa601…d54ebacked No6c11,466$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.083732.4%12 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33c2…9818backed Yes64c9,989$6,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,571.84242.9%18 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75b1…ef97backed No34c9,665$3,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,238.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1809…4eb7backed No50c8,011$4,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,008.731457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x249c…2783backed No16c7,904$1,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,242.972832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-37.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes51c6,819$3,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,332.4487828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No9c4,709$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.213212.5%4 W · 28 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-57.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe893…f215backed No6c4,010$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.582520%5 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-59.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No4c3,930$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.853724.3%9 W · 28 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-33.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x906b…fd3cbacked No52c3,130$1,641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,641.0730%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c70…e76dbacked No36c3,091$1,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,098.6360%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No20c2,500$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003423.5%8 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a38…bfe8backed No32c2,457$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$794.1112431.5%39 W · 85 L+0.5wins0.00per pick31cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc631…76f6backed Yes63c2,421$1,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.353342.4%14 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe649…2144backed No11c2,349$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.041241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-38.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x904f…50c6backed No36c2,050$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.31520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef5c…ae33backed Yes62c2,000$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7601650%8 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfeb5…a393backed No3c2,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6016761.7%103 W · 64 L+19.6wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+36.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x200c…4df8backed No11c2,000$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes74c1,980$1,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.717327.4%20 W · 53 L-9.1wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-59.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe03d…189abacked No27c1,809$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.691145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-22%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8252…e65cbacked No8c1,804$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.842114.3%3 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x602d…b193backed No30c1,680$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8111…489dbacked Yes65c1,550$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.54100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No6c1,500$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95306.7%2 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-73.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dc6…62e0backed No49c1,418$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.75650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe832…ab8ebacked No12c1,227$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5210…696dbacked Yes43c1,163$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No11c1,015$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.153414.7%5 W · 29 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-61.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed No5c1,000$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5412020%24 W · 96 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+43.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ba2…4f27backed No5c1,000$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-41.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c49…fbebbacked No15c973.83$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502020%4 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-47.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8611…925fbacked No9c907.6$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.97366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+24.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes48c756$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.567020%14 W · 56 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45ef…d3f6backed No20c750$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.653020%6 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-71.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8126…d776backed No15c718$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.68944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No3c714$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.931,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed No7c707$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.36110%0 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked No6c661$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.651717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-65.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dd0…bc3dbacked No58c600$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3481752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13bb…c279backed No9c537.82$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+22.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1e7…12febacked No28c500$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1402326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-51.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd69b…1ed8backed No10c495.68$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.484240.5%17 W · 25 L+6.4wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+110%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x627a…cdc2backed No64c400$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2561233.3%4 W · 8 L-3.2wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-48%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x461a…4030backed No64c334$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.761435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed Yes64c332.95$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.92560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e0b…1d63backed No14c311$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.597229.2%21 W · 51 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-38.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x97a7…49f7backed No4c305.04$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.989546.3%44 W · 51 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7fbe…d7e1backed No38c300$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11440%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa94f…0045backed No35c285.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5308…3221backed Yes36c278.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.28560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde26…0972backed Yes70c274.58$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.51275%9 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked No4c244.31$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.02366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf123…686fbacked No74c241$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.34425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-62.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1442…5a8fbacked Yes64c207$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa68…94a7backed No34c200$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb15d…2851backed Yes43c200$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1141050%5 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbdd…f771backed Yes76c197.63$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.631612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-82%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e2a…0e15backed No59c169.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x523f…f7dcbacked No64c156.42$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4329…b63bbacked Yes43c135.3$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.492213.6%3 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-58.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x241c…0557backed Yes41c120$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.7771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick60cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6aac…ab49backed Yes43c115.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.91366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+28.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbed0…77c7backed No74c114$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.361030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-50.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed No21c100.07$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.331827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.22326.1%6 W · 17 L-4.3wins-0.19per pick45cpaid-49.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x229c…7d80backed No12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x274a…9cc0backed No37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe45…a342backed No33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x608c…39c9backed No13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x60f6…41a9backed No43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes53c90.28$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.0211619%22 W · 94 L-7.9wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-62%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No53c81$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.935332.1%17 W · 36 L-7.9wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-45.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc440…2e0ebacked No55c80.51$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.28771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e2e…6856backed No49c80$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.280%0 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xae00…f7b0backed Yes69c80$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.81030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3cf…2fe0backed No63c79.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77cc…f51fbacked No15c75.84$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x970c…e248backed No34c75$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.52020%4 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4296…338ebacked No21c62.57$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.14425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-66.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c21…1142backed No16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5961…5788backed No57c60$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ae4…4f84backed No34c59.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+21%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82a0…33a1backed Yes67c55$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.153718.9%7 W · 30 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-59.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c7f…be25backed No63c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5540%2 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick74cpaid-48.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa934…6080backed No57c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefda…7da5backed No61c49.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1d0…438dbacked No61c48.73$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7330531.1%95 W · 210 L+0.8wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f79…7148backed Yes78c46.01$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.91944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e77…21a9backed Yes79c41.56$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.731258.3%7 W · 5 L+3.1wins+0.26per pick32cpaid+70.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe3fe…978fbacked Yes71c39$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.481675%12 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b7b…f74ebacked No68c34$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.19560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaf7…1645backed Yes69c31.74$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcab5…3621backed Yes67c28.36$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.362100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1282…519abacked No40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101040%4 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-38.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.