Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump visit Russia in first 100 days?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70d6726f639283c79ff2394d67edeb20c343da15a16242abc0ca253938422adf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $735,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $615,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $735,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 0c | 27,540$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.21 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 7c | 14,426$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.6 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 1c | 12,399$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.46 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 0c | 11,714$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8558…d6c9backed Yes | 1c | 6,881$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.88 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 2c | 5,331$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.66 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x714b…d071backed Yes | 1c | 5,186$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.27 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed Yes | 2c | 4,995$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.93 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +5.3wins | +0.31per pick | 39cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 9c | 4,783$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.67 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa309…0f3ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9373…9014backed Yes | 9c | 2,167$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc032…6668backed Yes | 1c | 2,034$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 10c | 1,980$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,848$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,615$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.21 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 7c | 1,500$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…e4eebacked Yes | 10c | 1,434$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e46…9800backed Yes | 1c | 1,308$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed Yes | 9c | 1,251$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 1c | 1,217$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…709cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,170$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.03 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab60…b46cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,143$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd612…dbd0backed Yes | 3c | 1,106$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c7…47d2backed Yes | 3c | 984.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94df…4455backed Yes | 3c | 908.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb731…4cb2backed Yes | 12c | 810.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb437…f6febacked Yes | 5c | 767.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes | 8c | 720$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1400…40d8backed Yes | 3c | 657.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 12c | 593.15$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.3 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.20per pick | 24cpaid | -71%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…d918backed Yes | 11c | 550$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.57 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6678…d4b6backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6404…f250backed Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5939…27b4backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac92…67efbacked Yes | 11c | 499.96$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 10c | 492.36$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d9f…a52bbacked Yes | 11c | 359.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87f…9d9bbacked Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…60e1backed Yes | 4c | 350$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x650d…c383backed Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3e…46c1backed Yes | 7c | 300.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f42…2af2backed Yes | 18c | 300$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1e…2577backed Yes | 5c | 287$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3495…b2a6backed Yes | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8b…713bbacked Yes | 7c | 270$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed Yes | 9c | 239.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 9c | 239.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae0…d1bcbacked Yes | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x092f…18acbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 10c | 197.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x789e…c510backed Yes | 13c | 184.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eaa…5ffcbacked Yes | 16c | 170$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e87…1c22backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c5…6489backed Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c12…7765backed Yes | 7c | 161.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f6…275bbacked Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9869…8f72backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0735…005dbacked Yes | 13c | 147.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6334…1c52backed Yes | 14c | 146.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…294ebacked Yes | 10c | 137$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258b…c632backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf06f…81efbacked Yes | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56df…e40dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf271…0fb9backed Yes | 13c | 82.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ad…f321backed Yes | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 67c | 50.76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff27…1a68backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.