Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during January press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x955365e8aa835120da56d9947f60f0c8a83af20e31a94f7dc485ecbfc34ec039
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,824
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,824 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 67c | 7,810$5,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,232.19 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f77…b4e3backed Yes | 66c | 5,398$3,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,565.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe77f…4374backed No | 39c | 4,442$1,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,710.47 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 23c | 3,651$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.67 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xee63…07a4backed No | 27c | 3,622$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,632.44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +123.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 65c | 3,017$1,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,972.94 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 2,429$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.39 | 64 | 12.5%8 W · 56 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20e…5998backed Yes | 73c | 2,265$1,643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,643.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed No | 37c | 2,220$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400.32 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed No | 32c | 2,182$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,480.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked No | 36c | 2,141$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,370.24 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…a2e1backed Yes | 72c | 2,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb56b…45f2backed No | 28c | 1,732$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,247.27 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x286e…adb7backed No | 77c | 1,606$1,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ca…3501backed Yes | 40c | 1,592$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.55 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 19c | 1,590$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.01 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked No | 28c | 1,290$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…8afebacked No | 79c | 1,266$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29da…5488backed Yes | 64c | 924.97$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5682…6808backed No | 44c | 888$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4386…1093backed No | 43c | 888$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9890…4f01backed Yes | 56c | 888$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a5…edd0backed Yes | 57c | 888$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 42c | 641.94$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.37 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 56c | 581.23$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.49 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked Yes | 63c | 558.91$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.83 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…fba5backed No | 39c | 509.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.16 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 38c | 499.99$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 63c | 492.29$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.02 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 27c | 451$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.23 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1836…db98backed No | 34c | 444.12$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +110.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…19bcbacked No | 27c | 400$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 5c | 375$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +150%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 5c | 375$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +432.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…6a1cbacked Yes | 61c | 344.98$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.94 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed No | 44c | 341.36$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa23a…aa7ebacked No | 45c | 333.7$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 33c | 321.6$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.08 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 8c | 315.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf81b…89b1backed No | 35c | 285.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.66 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97fb…02eabacked No | 44c | 258.45$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…9236backed No | 40c | 249.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes | 72c | 243.06$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…2ce6backed No | 27c | 230$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ba…dbc7backed No | 44c | 224.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.9 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -63%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93c6…20f1backed No | 35c | 212.29$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +149.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…4e12backed Yes | 5c | 200.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 27c | 200$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79d4…6d24backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 27c | 200$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab0…42debacked No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ce…d29cbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 62c | 187.68$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.68 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5827…69dcbacked No | 29c | 180$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 72c | 180$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.6 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -6.7wins | -0.19per pick | 22cpaid | -96.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…51afbacked Yes | 58c | 170$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…1430backed Yes | 65c | 169.23$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14bf…e895backed Yes | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x498f…7b7fbacked No | 28c | 160$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad6…464cbacked No | 33c | 150$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5b…6759backed No | 27c | 150$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 37cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccc…e832backed Yes | 60c | 150$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e00…7886backed No | 50c | 135.1$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8d…6790backed No | 41c | 134.15$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb583…35d9backed No | 32c | 130$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2a…25d5backed No | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4a…089fbacked No | 79c | 126.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed Yes | 53c | 120$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 59c | 119.02$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.22 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 39c | 115.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.17 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ad…f321backed No | 35c | 114.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db5…151fbacked No | 51c | 111.44$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked No | 27c | 111$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +158.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…30e8backed No | 34c | 102.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +431.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe65a…e27dbacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0895…9925backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a77…6502backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x605c…1fcabacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdf…085ebacked No | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed No | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad2…f7f0backed Yes | 70c | 99.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 50c | 95.87$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed No | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba32…be21backed No | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +204.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 65c | 88.81$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.41 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7556…f7e4backed No | 37c | 77.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d3…0e33backed No | 39c | 76.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked Yes | 59c | 73.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.63 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7b…1873backed Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bf…3853backed No | 33c | 73.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +205.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a42…36dcbacked No | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf789…c4ccbacked No | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 23cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb52…2241backed Yes | 73c | 71.08$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bad…58d5backed No | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2c…2436backed No | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7101…aea1backed Yes | 74c | 64.32$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…5c25backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during January press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "DeepSeek" during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "cut" 7 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "deport" or "deportation" during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "good afternoon" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "growth" 8 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "immigrant" or "immigration" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "price" 15 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "tariff" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "unemployment" 8 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.