Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "unemployment" 8 or more times during January press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19aac6e115e678351dfbd00ec3e17486e6e71f38c1fc25ea20166c4d111aebaf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,904
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,904 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes | 66c | 5,362$3,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,831.72 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 33c | 3,594$1,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171.68 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 38c | 1,380$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.45 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 33c | 1,160$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.58 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb56b…45f2backed No | 30c | 1,150$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed No | 27c | 861.77$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.68 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 32c | 780.4$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.02 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 32c | 700$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.89 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…19bcbacked No | 37c | 686$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.06 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe9…8308backed Yes | 68c | 600$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 34c | 462.14$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.61 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked No | 34c | 457.92$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.63 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 39c | 418.57$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.42 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed Yes | 54c | 330.91$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.53 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b2…4e0cbacked No | 36c | 295.56$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe77f…4374backed No | 34c | 237.13$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed No | 35c | 218.65$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 63c | 180$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc360…0c46backed Yes | 64c | 156.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 64c | 148$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9b…7fe0backed No | 45c | 136.46$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.98 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked Yes | 66c | 128.39$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.24 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 72c | 125.65$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked No | 25c | 118.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e2e4backed No | 40c | 112.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 67c | 110$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdf…085ebacked No | 45c | 108.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…51afbacked Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 31c | 72.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 18c | 70.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 38c | 69.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked No | 44c | 69.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 30c | 61.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9c…d01bbacked Yes | 55c | 56.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x041c…88c5backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcb…b930backed Yes | 61c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +157.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8078…7a77backed No | 45c | 47.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…a0babacked No | 23c | 46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bb…5730backed No | 31c | 42.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f50…8b7ebacked No | 31c | 42.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325b…a7f2backed No | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked Yes | 64c | 41.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5890…2d2ebacked No | 45c | 39.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb72f…1681backed No | 46c | 39.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…9070backed No | 31c | 38.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…bf78backed No | 31c | 38.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…1c68backed No | 31c | 37.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…be1cbacked No | 31c | 36.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -6.7wins | -0.19per pick | 22cpaid | -96.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbe49…e231backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5938…b5b8backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +168.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f0…c166backed No | 36c | 27.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759a…5634backed Yes | 76c | 27.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e59…a031backed No | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 69c | 22.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc63…07abbacked Yes | 70c | 21.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b69…66ebbacked Yes | 70c | 20.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0c…ca82backed Yes | 70c | 20.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6e…1571backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc76…6b2fbacked Yes | 70c | 19.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba89…aba9backed Yes | 70c | 19.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…1e7bbacked Yes | 70c | 18.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2f…97adbacked Yes | 70c | 18.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d8…eaafbacked Yes | 70c | 18.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac58…9d79backed Yes | 70c | 18.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…a543backed Yes | 70c | 17.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb58b…434fbacked Yes | 67c | 17.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04af…8195backed Yes | 70c | 16.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a85…9325backed Yes | 70c | 16.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…10f3backed Yes | 70c | 16.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7b…897cbacked Yes | 70c | 15.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe007…701ebacked Yes | 70c | 15.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7b…1873backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cb…0830backed Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd385…12bebacked Yes | 70c | 14.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "unemployment" 8 or more times during January press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "DeepSeek" during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "cut" 7 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "deport" or "deportation" during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "good afternoon" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "growth" 8 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "immigrant" or "immigration" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "price" 15 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "tariff" during January press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.