Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during January press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48b7744995bb1172e086c2e6e17c1bcf62c205ea2583fd759bc4faebf369f3d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,928
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,120
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,928 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 1c | 9,721$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 10c | 8,269$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,431.13 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +211.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed No | 14c | 4,964$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,247.7 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,954$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 64 | 12.5%8 W · 56 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd336…f5e8backed No | 13c | 1,910$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,662.43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 11c | 1,800$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,601.99 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed Yes | 2c | 1,710$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 10c | 1,508$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,357.07 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…a749backed No | 17c | 1,504$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,249.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…0934backed No | 13c | 1,200$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 64c | 1,058$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.72 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed Yes | 50c | 1,027$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.09 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked No | 15c | 1,014$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.93 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 50c | 888$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.15 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 14c | 790.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.25 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…2ad4backed No | 15c | 686.6$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.31per pick | 12cpaid | +122.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 31c | 675.17$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.59 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed Yes | 2c | 640.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ba…dbc7backed No | 16c | 625$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -63%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x088d…63b0backed No | 16c | 610.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +511%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked No | 42c | 575.43$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.21 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 14c | 507.51$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.5 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…789fbacked No | 13c | 471.85$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +285.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…f6aabacked No | 43c | 454.39$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.72 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x498f…7b7fbacked Yes | 5c | 436.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb56b…45f2backed No | 15c | 400$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…8ebbbacked No | 17c | 294.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2a…25d5backed No | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.12 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe067…3455backed No | 17c | 289.71$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe77f…4374backed No | 54c | 285.89$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.31 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e00…7886backed Yes | 45c | 276.2$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked No | 11c | 241.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.99 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7a…54fdbacked No | 41c | 235.26$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +141.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb54a…cf5abacked No | 17c | 201.53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +199.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…06bbbacked No | 13c | 200.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +291.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed No | 16c | 200$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b6…c841backed No | 12c | 191.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d3…11fbbacked No | 41c | 168.51$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.42 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked No | 15c | 158.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.43 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9380…3a18backed No | 16c | 156.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +212.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 15c | 150.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.15 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed No | 20c | 150$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db5…151fbacked No | 54c | 134.75$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 12c | 117.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.87 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d5…7e99backed No | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…30e8backed No | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +431.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…5c25backed No | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4d…6d87backed No | 12c | 107.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +473.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…9074backed No | 15c | 100.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdf…085ebacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…7d80backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…c7b5backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c8…3603backed No | 16c | 95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 26c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +6.1wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab0…42debacked No | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5460…be6fbacked Yes | 68c | 76.12$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3979…f49ebacked No | 16c | 65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x514f…7bb7backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa64a…21dabacked No | 18c | 61.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe220…d439backed No | 17c | 60$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e53…73e3backed No | 33c | 53.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +202.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50c0…e601backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x307e…37b4backed No | 29c | 45.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +250.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed No | 55c | 40.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during January press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "DeepSeek" during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "cut" 7 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "deport" or "deportation" during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "good afternoon" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "growth" 8 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "immigrant" or "immigration" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "price" 15 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "tariff" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "unemployment" 8 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.