TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Powell say "growth" 8 or more times during January press conference?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,857
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,541

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,857 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes63c7,498$4,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,7001275%9 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No32c4,921$1,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,362.367160.6%43 W · 28 L+10.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+44.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No36c2,360$842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,517.896453.1%34 W · 30 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x461a…4030backed No41c2,321$963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,358.461030%3 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6125…089cbacked No34c1,500$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$985250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+45.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No36c1,053$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.7819026.3%50 W · 140 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x866d…4d7dbacked No31c954.2$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.21428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed No35c600.95$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.824645.7%21 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No24c501.77$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.84229.1%2 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc81…60a3backed Yes76c476.19$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.9683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick72cpaid+18%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No42c462.5$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.55637.5%21 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf29f…5ccabacked No21c415.7$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.42035%7 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No38c397.95$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.5918135.4%64 W · 117 L-16.4wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-36.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No30c391$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.72927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes67c349.91$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.497243.1%31 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87a0…4e12backed Yes49c307.06$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.591618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.17per pick35cpaid-43.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb35b…fc08backed Yes5c270.31$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.541225%3 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c14…3371backed No70c257.92$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.92250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b6c…f6aabacked No30c239.55$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.921526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-40%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3459…808abacked No30c163$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.1475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+89.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No41c148.67$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.725127.5%14 W · 37 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-39.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe77f…4374backed No34c147.06$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.061154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+45.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed No33c140$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.41735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-27.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x098e…6fa2backed Yes18c120$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.12330.4%7 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-41.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93b4…cbfdbacked Yes70c119.09$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.292437.5%9 W · 15 L-4.3wins-0.18per pick55cpaid-41.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3490…dbbfbacked No30c116.67$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.672100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+157.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes64c110.67$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.8724046.3%111 W · 129 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58b5…7340backed No39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dc6…62e0backed No34c100$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+86.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes61c97.3$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3520021.5%43 W · 157 L-10.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-39.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xac45…20c5backed No30c80$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566442.2%27 W · 37 L-5.1wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x366f…6685backed No33c67.5$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.422100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+199.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7404…d580backed Yes56c62.5$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-43.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc84a…9099backed Yes70c60$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick64cpaid-35.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes70c52$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.45131.4%16 W · 35 L-5.4wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-39.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb3ba…6cbdbacked Yes66c50.82$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f6e…1571backed Yes70c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+22.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x041c…88c5backed No33c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.51050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+31.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1460…b3ddbacked No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe89…a0babacked No33c46$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.82633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbed0…77c7backed No33c46$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.821338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbd4…f135backed No35c42.34$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2493…c053backed No35c41.74$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked No35c40.82$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.342763%17 W · 10 L+6.1wins+0.22per pick40cpaid+48.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No39c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.41811.1%2 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.20per pick31cpaid-78.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa6e4…0c53backed No35c39.91$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x531d…f1ebbacked No35c39.69$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b3c…d75ebacked No35c39.23$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd946…0dc7backed No34c39$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f0b…92ccbacked No35c38.89$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2e1…b4debacked No46c38.31$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.722100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+201.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd33…2556backed No35c37.57$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d4d…6d87backed No31c37.5$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.752100%2 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+473.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0040…5c25backed Yes70c37.19$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.03450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+88.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1d6…3407backed No35c36.74$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cf…89e0backed No35c35.43$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ac9…99a9backed No35c35$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c34…3f78backed No35c34.94$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed No30c34$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.8666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+19.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb95…91ddbacked No35c33.74$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8409…d712backed No35c33.6$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7fd…e3e9backed No35c33.14$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No35c33$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.482512%3 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-55.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xedb2…67a5backed No35c32.63$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a8a…444dbacked No35c32.4$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf460…0b2abacked No35c31.74$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x070f…5e39backed No35c30.54$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3978…2f24backed No36c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.26per pick52cpaid+52%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5770…bafcbacked Yes66c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.81275%9 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x63fe…49f2backed No35c28.94$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d45…97f4backed Yes73c27.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick48cpaid-81.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc2a…97aabacked No38c27.06$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.832055%11 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+21.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3fe…978fbacked Yes67c23.83$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.971250%6 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3726backed Yes68c22.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-2.6wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Yes68c21.53$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.743933.3%13 W · 26 L-5.6wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-46.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2f27…fd82backed Yes74c21.53$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe82b…c103backed Yes66c20.24$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf321…a368backed Yes59c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.820%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xba02…8393backed Yes66c19.58$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d32…e46cbacked Yes66c18.97$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.