Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "price" 15 or more times during January press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7087a4ab662ed74b72e4f127ef1caa820b7ed8a795461265bb9f88fe23b1286
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,164
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes | 61c | 8,751$5,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,375.97 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 34c | 6,921$2,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,383.28 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed No | 3c | 4,755$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.83 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…b5f7backed No | 40c | 3,064$1,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 35c | 3,054$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075.72 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x498f…7b7fbacked No | 2c | 2,083$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 36c | 1,590$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.99 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 4c | 1,300$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3de2…e3f3backed Yes | 53c | 950$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4b…f338backed No | 48c | 950$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55d…e6f7backed Yes | 52c | 950$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8722…2df4backed No | 47c | 950$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 32c | 809.02$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.78 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 30c | 800$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 47c | 700$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 45c | 567.1$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 30c | 517.24$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.17 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc81…60a3backed Yes | 70c | 517.24$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.17 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 72cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked No | 29c | 507.66$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.22 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked No | 30c | 500$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 64c | 392$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.94 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…8167backed No | 16c | 355.7$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.91 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 15cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 45c | 350$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ee…4ab8backed Yes | 55c | 334.04$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…4e12backed No | 34c | 295.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked Yes | 69c | 283.9$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.36 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked No | 46c | 222$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.12 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed Yes | 51c | 202.16$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.16 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad6…464cbacked No | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…f6aabacked No | 30c | 166.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked Yes | 67c | 153.42$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.05 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcb…b930backed Yes | 47c | 150$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +157.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…51afbacked Yes | 64c | 140$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe77f…4374backed No | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…a2e1backed Yes | 63c | 108.68$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.21 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e2e4backed Yes | 70c | 107.14$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2732…3085backed No | 49c | 102$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdf…085ebacked No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 50c | 77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2182…e3d7backed Yes | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 50c | 64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked Yes | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 38c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x041c…88c5backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed Yes | 53c | 46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe237…9242backed No | 37c | 38.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4f…7160backed No | 37c | 36.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +6.1wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…1a28backed No | 36c | 34.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97b4…e83abacked No | 37c | 34.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ad…79d0backed No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x248a…b65fbacked Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed Yes | 63c | 26.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b1…fd27backed Yes | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae2…076cbacked Yes | 72c | 22.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc005…049cbacked Yes | 65c | 21.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6e…1571backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x299a…99c8backed Yes | 65c | 17.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "price" 15 or more times during January press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "DeepSeek" during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "cut" 7 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "deport" or "deportation" during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "good afternoon" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "growth" 8 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "immigrant" or "immigration" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "tariff" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "unemployment" 8 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.