Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during January press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a0c74eae24c6648f7f76ac44241f13f7876dbd5926b0e512e6f4af5b3a9da1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $109,970
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3979…f49ebacked No | 0c | 13,812$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd336…f5e8backed No | 8c | 8,790$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 45c | 5,005$2,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,751.75 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…6a1cbacked No | 8c | 4,500$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 5c | 3,242$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.1 | 64 | 12.5%8 W · 56 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed No | 8c | 3,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 43c | 2,594$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,473.93 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 8c | 2,538$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.01 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed Yes | 73c | 2,429$1,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.71 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe77f…4374backed No | 67c | 1,999$1,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,332.14 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 6c | 1,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.02 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 7c | 1,600$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 4c | 1,496$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.89 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3df…5c3bbacked No | 8c | 1,278$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ba…dbc7backed No | 9c | 1,076$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -63%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 6c | 987.84$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.27 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477b…27debacked No | 7c | 977$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 29cpaid | +76%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 40c | 866.36$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.61 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked No | 21c | 737.83$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.65 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecea…de43backed No | 8c | 725$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 52c | 655$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.8 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8d…6790backed No | 9c | 583$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2a…25d5backed No | 9c | 575.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7afebacked Yes | 76c | 533.51$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.63 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ba…e7ebbacked No | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…f6aabacked No | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 4c | 485.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 17c | 350$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d5…7e99backed No | 9c | 327.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed No | 7c | 312.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed No | 8c | 309.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286e…adb7backed Yes | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…789fbacked No | 8c | 294.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +285.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb80f…cbf7backed No | 7c | 270.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked No | 6c | 268.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 14c | 266.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.61 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +432.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed No | 7c | 250.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3f…0468backed No | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a42…36dcbacked No | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf789…c4ccbacked No | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 23cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…3a25backed No | 7c | 224.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe49…e231backed No | 7c | 216$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 44c | 207.9$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb869…c4c6backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…c7b5backed Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked No | 9c | 190.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa64a…21dabacked No | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2c…2436backed No | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5460…be6fbacked Yes | 22c | 130$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a63…2eb3backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…c35fbacked No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x246c…4c1abacked No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba65…37cbbacked No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1836…db98backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +110.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3305…f25fbacked No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed No | 47c | 121.19$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.77 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89e7…0ffabacked No | 76c | 105.03$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed Yes | 15c | 96.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.62 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38cd…a557backed Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08a4…1102backed Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 38c | 32.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab0…42debacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x549d…aa7ebacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during January press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "DeepSeek" during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "cut" 7 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "deport" or "deportation" during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "good afternoon" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "growth" 8 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "immigrant" or "immigration" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during January press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "price" 15 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "tariff" during January press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "unemployment" 8 or more times during January press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.