World Politics · resolved market
Will the SPD be part of the next German government?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf379802b7062e7054167a393f1bcb7c3eb01b9db56cbe04c63044c54bced14ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $574,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $554,596
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $574,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x700f…2c1dbacked No | 0c | 150,538$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa81e…b4e0backed No | 1c | 35,649$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.92 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 1c | 27,100$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.6 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 0c | 22,431$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed No | 0c | 21,750$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…11f2backed No | 1c | 16,276$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.21 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d52…50e6backed No | 2c | 15,111$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.85 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes | 80c | 11,322$9,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,268.75 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 2c | 9,167$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.21 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.7wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 6c | 9,063$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.82 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed No | 2c | 7,390$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.9 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…7b5ebacked No | 5c | 6,971$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.63 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 80c | 6,810$5,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,381.81 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…7c32backed Yes | 78c | 5,566$4,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,216.38 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34a4…4cc7backed No | 14c | 5,288$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.53 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb425…366bbacked No | 22c | 5,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8967…1e9bbacked No | 4c | 4,459$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.41 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…c9dabacked No | 6c | 4,301$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.08 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +195.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 3,977$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 3c | 3,790$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.71 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…97f1backed No | 19c | 3,132$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.13 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8365…e9a6backed No | 19c | 3,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 1c | 2,453$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c74…d2d4backed No | 1c | 2,231$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3d…8190backed No | 3c | 2,086$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…7820backed No | 5c | 2,060$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 15c | 2,052$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.83 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 14c | 1,692$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.81 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 9c | 1,662$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.81 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81fa…41c9backed No | 3c | 1,650$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5541…33f2backed No | 3c | 1,563$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed No | 6c | 1,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked No | 9c | 1,230$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.82 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed No | 20c | 1,152$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.33 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9d…39b7backed No | 18c | 1,012$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.23 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x670b…e4afbacked No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a5…4032backed No | 6c | 998.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.89 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed No | 6c | 953.25$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe51e…0079backed No | 20c | 927.74$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.55 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33fa…d9a7backed No | 2c | 854.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed No | 21c | 833.47$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.85 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 20c | 800$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa587…82d1backed Yes | 76c | 706$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 3c | 689.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x440e…81e4backed Yes | 78c | 660.63$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.34 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…116fbacked No | 8c | 637.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf764…26e9backed No | 5c | 632.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 2c | 600.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 4c | 560.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfab9…60b2backed No | 20c | 550$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…0064backed No | 19c | 513.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0004…ef4cbacked No | 14c | 499.97$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 22c | 458.39$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5367…9e65backed Yes | 78c | 455.58$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 2c | 439$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…ac12backed Yes | 75c | 420$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3670…18e8backed No | 5c | 400$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4312…01debacked No | 21c | 320$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e7…fc15backed No | 20c | 319.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2378…a059backed Yes | 77c | 303.24$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.24 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd692…139fbacked No | 21c | 276.19$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed No | 11c | 274.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…0446backed Yes | 73c | 274.02$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.02 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd76…93e3backed No | 19c | 261.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8238…01a0backed No | 18c | 261.83$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2997…ee2bbacked Yes | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7204…9e0cbacked No | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f2…57b2backed No | 24c | 235$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.79 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…5a9abacked Yes | 79c | 233.49$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.34 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e0…2596backed No | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed Yes | 71c | 224.09$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.04 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked No | 22c | 221.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe786…f1eabacked No | 11c | 220$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d2…53c9backed No | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 47cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd2…9448backed Yes | 77c | 206.58$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…b532backed No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc2…e6ccbacked No | 21c | 177.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 80c | 177$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…acf4backed No | 20c | 152.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5460…afe8backed No | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cb…3688backed Yes | 76c | 133.91$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4145…fc24backed No | 21c | 116.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5f…e086backed Yes | 79c | 115$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed Yes | 78c | 113.99$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ac…1af2backed No | 22c | 111.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72a0…5d96backed Yes | 78c | 103.43$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…23a9backed No | 22c | 103.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed48…1f3fbacked No | 20c | 102.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x314e…f111backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed2…2f55backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fed…6ffbbacked No | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63dc…a766backed No | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…8ac1backed No | 18c | 90.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8686…a6f4backed No | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…123bbacked No | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4db…cb83backed Yes | 79c | 75.64$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe900…6cdcbacked No | 23c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the SPD be part of the next German government?this page
- Will the AFD be part of the next German government?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government?Yes won
- Will the Greens be part of the next German government?No won
- Will the Left be part of the next German government?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.