World Politics · resolved market
Will the AFD be part of the next German government?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8545ea6fed1e7cfa2547777ff038fe800002e04d046a03241ac2950558fdf09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,811,780
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,361,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,811,780 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 265 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d52…50e6backed Yes | 2c | 471,116$7,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,791.03 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…2c1dbacked Yes | 0c | 102,156$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.58 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb29…625bbacked Yes | 2c | 94,468$1,886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,885.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 2c | 92,839$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680.06 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ef…ffe1backed Yes | 8c | 63,966$4,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,976.83 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -76%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…1962backed Yes | 10c | 62,598$5,951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,950.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…acd1backed Yes | 2c | 62,045$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,026.72 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 55,357$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.15 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc411…2a64backed Yes | 3c | 54,689$1,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,459.23 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb082…6986backed Yes | 1c | 51,265$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 1c | 38,793$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.22 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Yes | 9c | 32,864$2,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,843.21 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7265…6f14backed Yes | 10c | 29,578$2,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,996.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2d…631fbacked Yes | 5c | 28,343$1,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,349.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 28,037$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.07 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91eb…1cadbacked Yes | 4c | 25,666$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa81e…b4e0backed Yes | 1c | 25,078$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.59 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed Yes | 3c | 22,795$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.85 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 21,870$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.23 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb353…09e8backed Yes | 6c | 21,624$1,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,195.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 4c | 18,000$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Yes | 4c | 12,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ef…3d1ebacked Yes | 6c | 12,347$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.67 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 11,427$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.39 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a66…9bc0backed Yes | 6c | 11,045$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.14 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked Yes | 6c | 10,313$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.5 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 6c | 10,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…23e4backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa0…dbe9backed Yes | 7c | 9,964$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77e2…6970backed Yes | 0c | 8,782$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc0…27c4backed Yes | 2c | 8,022$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f54…89cbbacked Yes | 1c | 7,200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed Yes | 3c | 7,000$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 6c | 7,000$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.5 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…a7e6backed Yes | 7c | 6,508$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 1c | 6,424$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.26 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b27…03b8backed Yes | 4c | 6,059$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…f1a4backed Yes | 7c | 6,000$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.83 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f0…cf6dbacked Yes | 7c | 5,987$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…fbf5backed Yes | 7c | 5,887$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0d…751dbacked Yes | 8c | 5,825$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb0…907fbacked Yes | 9c | 5,820$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb374…cdf9backed Yes | 2c | 5,797$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa329…cd30backed Yes | 4c | 5,790$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…11f2backed Yes | 2c | 5,555$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.88 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf975…9381backed Yes | 2c | 5,489$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.87 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1855…0310backed Yes | 8c | 5,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa45a…76b0backed Yes | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 5c | 4,858$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.02 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…f92abacked Yes | 2c | 4,600$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd97f…b6fdbacked Yes | 11c | 4,534$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…5871backed Yes | 8c | 4,500$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x991f…979dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,489$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 4c | 4,444$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.76 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7978…5523backed Yes | 4c | 4,174$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3481…3fdbbacked Yes | 6c | 3,870$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe718…8cb6backed Yes | 8c | 3,850$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a5…4032backed Yes | 3c | 3,828$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.82 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b3…ed64backed Yes | 8c | 3,797$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfe…2330backed Yes | 8c | 3,765$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd8…6f90backed Yes | 3c | 3,738$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5e…7336backed Yes | 8c | 3,732$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x933b…ba50backed Yes | 1c | 3,598$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefa4…4adcbacked Yes | 4c | 3,509$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe66…ae05backed Yes | 2c | 3,388$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…8582backed Yes | 5c | 3,386$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ace…e38bbacked Yes | 4c | 3,359$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.81 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d05…b600backed Yes | 2c | 3,322$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14dd…13eebacked Yes | 5c | 3,282$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.98 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 1c | 3,257$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3838…c116backed Yes | 2c | 3,197$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 6c | 3,125$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.08 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8f…62e0backed Yes | 7c | 3,068$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x458b…a46dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b2…4e48backed Yes | 6c | 3,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…c3f0backed Yes | 7c | 2,997$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a6…06afbacked Yes | 4c | 2,782$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2a…92b1backed Yes | 1c | 2,696$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8732…6cb4backed Yes | 4c | 2,660$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf433…b73cbacked Yes | 8c | 2,629$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…195ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,600$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eca…63a9backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b47…aa4dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,493$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.52 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,470$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01d0…4afdbacked Yes | 2c | 2,405$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce50…123bbacked Yes | 5c | 2,341$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ba…e7ebbacked Yes | 1c | 2,336$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -86%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca5…f95dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -76%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fc…6689backed Yes | 2c | 2,212$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ef…1088backed Yes | 11c | 2,209$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4835…8f59backed Yes | 10c | 2,174$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -27%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes | 6c | 2,130$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.92 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…ce39backed Yes | 2c | 2,111$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…4eefbacked Yes | 3c | 2,082$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.98 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6d…a472backed Yes | 8c | 2,032$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeca…9826backed Yes | 8c | 2,031$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…0245backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…0b0dbacked Yes | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the AFD be part of the next German government?this page
- Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government?Yes won
- Will the Greens be part of the next German government?No won
- Will the Left be part of the next German government?No won
- Will the SPD be part of the next German government?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.