World Politics · resolved market
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcda43b8984c7569551729a71eb35d204988dbd1f3a09641db33c2ef529968f72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,374,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,082,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,374,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d52…50e6backed No | 2c | 390,145$5,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,880.98 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…e476backed No | 2c | 100,012$1,903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,903 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 2c | 76,598$1,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225.57 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked No | 0c | 46,145$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.52 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked No | 0c | 43,047$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.21 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 1c | 34,512$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.28 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed No | 1c | 25,226$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.03 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc2…4f75backed No | 1c | 21,075$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…dd74backed No | 2c | 19,884$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 2c | 19,854$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.94 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 0c | 18,091$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…5871backed No | 2c | 16,724$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.84 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 3c | 14,594$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.71 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…ac12backed No | 2c | 12,896$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.91 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed No | 0c | 12,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 4c | 9,508$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.62 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6412…d1dcbacked No | 2c | 8,651$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb29…625bbacked No | 4c | 6,995$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 6c | 6,826$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.87 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 0c | 6,224$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked No | 3c | 5,717$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.87 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d2…2fc6backed No | 3c | 5,167$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 2c | 4,623$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.03 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…e4a7backed No | 3c | 4,519$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 3c | 3,500$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.97 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed No | 1c | 3,132$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3067…2cdfbacked No | 2c | 3,032$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8365…e9a6backed No | 3c | 3,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.19 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81fa…41c9backed No | 3c | 2,756$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.04 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 2,663$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…289abacked No | 1c | 1,612$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0802…8cb0backed No | 3c | 1,568$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ba…0672backed No | 3c | 1,381$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 2c | 1,208$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed No | 3c | 1,150$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x670b…e4afbacked No | 4c | 1,049$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed No | 1c | 1,023$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e6…d30abacked No | 1c | 1,010$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 4c | 1,005$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…7b5ebacked No | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked No | 3c | 989.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 6c | 856.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x562f…e46fbacked No | 1c | 853.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2755…5016backed No | 3c | 827.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…6b49backed No | 2c | 809.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7083…49f9backed No | 4c | 769.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a4…4cc7backed No | 5c | 591.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefea…62c3backed No | 4c | 572.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3670…18e8backed No | 5c | 497.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed No | 4c | 466.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 3c | 399.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…6bf8backed No | 7c | 352.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe51e…0079backed No | 5c | 351.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 5c | 291$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +285.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f1…5e49backed No | 7c | 289.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 5c | 251.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government?this page
- Will the AFD be part of the next German government?No won
- Will the Greens be part of the next German government?No won
- Will the Left be part of the next German government?No won
- Will the SPD be part of the next German government?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.