World Politics · resolved market
Will the Left be part of the next German government?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1497390efc40c84f6cada58ca637b6bd0e501e7f2cfffb97d5ff5371b2e56f11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $814,596
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,159,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $814,596 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 0c | 30,534$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.3 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 16,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…dd74backed Yes | 1c | 15,385$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ba…e7ebbacked Yes | 0c | 11,510$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -86%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…0934backed Yes | 6c | 10,000$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 7,466$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…067bbacked Yes | 3c | 4,522$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e2…1546backed Yes | 7c | 4,130$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.71 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 3c | 4,101$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.02 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x670b…e4afbacked Yes | 3c | 3,178$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 2c | 2,400$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 100 | 14%14 W · 86 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7083…49f9backed Yes | 5c | 1,972$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a4…4cc7backed Yes | 3c | 1,898$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 1c | 1,082$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83f8…30afbacked Yes | 2c | 1,054$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 4c | 1,045$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 3c | 999.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 110 | 13.6%15 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0004…ef4cbacked Yes | 1c | 957.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d8…fb38backed Yes | 3c | 860.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 748.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 4c | 645.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 78c | 500$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.5 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Left be part of the next German government?this page
- Will the AFD be part of the next German government?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government?Yes won
- Will the Greens be part of the next German government?No won
- Will the SPD be part of the next German government?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.