World Politics · resolved market
Will the Greens be part of the next German government?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5140324695c2491442b03c6e7a17910f988b6de5ca55e355f0334c8ec0ef789
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $666,172
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $922,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $666,172 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 201 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3ac…13c2backed Yes | 8c | 20,373$1,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,531.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 18,747$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.97 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 66c | 17,997$11,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,059.45 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…ac12backed Yes | 22c | 17,958$3,982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,981.89 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 1c | 16,733$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.55 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 0c | 10,764$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ba…e7ebbacked Yes | 0c | 10,598$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -86%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 8c | 9,021$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.74 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 36c | 7,619$2,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,730.16 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35b5…6950backed Yes | 16c | 6,308$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7e…77f1backed Yes | 10c | 5,702$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.97 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 6c | 4,795$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.07 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,475$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes | 17c | 4,436$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.07 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…7820backed Yes | 2c | 3,878$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a4…4cc7backed Yes | 27c | 3,756$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.72 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x670b…e4afbacked Yes | 25c | 3,520$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.23 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 67c | 3,422$2,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,121.22 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 3c | 3,033$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.65 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a7…29e2backed Yes | 2c | 2,932$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 11cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked No | 74c | 2,893$2,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.71 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…7c32backed Yes | 35c | 2,880$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 17c | 2,768$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.48 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,587$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.69 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…e4a7backed Yes | 34c | 2,500$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 79c | 2,245$1,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.07 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec40…fce5backed Yes | 34c | 2,000$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.99 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0195…23d0backed Yes | 23c | 1,936$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.17 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d8…fb38backed Yes | 32c | 1,879$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8365…e9a6backed No | 69c | 1,828$1,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.02 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 72c | 1,664$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.16 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 32c | 1,428$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.2 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf24c…74a6backed Yes | 30c | 1,234$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.92 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 22c | 1,227$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.1 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2997…ee2bbacked No | 62c | 1,167$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…116fbacked No | 69c | 1,107$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.34 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a66…9bc0backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…067bbacked Yes | 27c | 999.98$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0623…35dbbacked Yes | 31c | 970.45$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked No | 71c | 892.83$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.92 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d1…c2acbacked Yes | 4c | 889$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 6c | 871.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 30c | 842.4$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.84 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf3…986ebacked Yes | 2c | 833.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7816…af9dbacked No | 66c | 828.14$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.04 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c8…6e68backed Yes | 31c | 783.03$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.67 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed Yes | 4c | 707.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 69c | 685$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.61 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7204…9e0cbacked Yes | 36c | 623.08$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x553f…6169backed Yes | 3c | 588.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f0…e0d6backed Yes | 28c | 574.18$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.01 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 23c | 572$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.51 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5367…9e65backed Yes | 35c | 565.94$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfab9…60b2backed No | 66c | 550.29$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.38 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1795…8e9fbacked No | 73c | 544.97$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.79 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…aa35backed No | 75c | 510.15$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.03 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99f2…57b2backed No | 80c | 500.45$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.63 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76fa…bdfdbacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 68c | 500$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec1b…c92fbacked Yes | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb4…0dbfbacked Yes | 3c | 483.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 73c | 461.25$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.22 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.7wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 24c | 450$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.3 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…80cebacked Yes | 4c | 446.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…72dabacked No | 65c | 441.79$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.03 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefea…62c3backed No | 74c | 418.01$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.4 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 33c | 408$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.95 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…f70dbacked Yes | 25c | 400.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes | 27c | 400$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.13 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 38c | 385.69$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.71 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 14c | 378$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 131 | 18.3%24 W · 107 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked No | 74c | 372$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.74 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…996bbacked Yes | 27c | 370.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd692…139fbacked No | 66c | 369.27$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 27c | 364.14$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.32 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9d…39b7backed Yes | 26c | 342.72$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.11 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 31c | 339.72$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.62 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5077…abffbacked Yes | 6c | 339.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -76%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 32c | 335.88$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.9 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed No | 64c | 333$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.88 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 3c | 331.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 70c | 327.16$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.59 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…b532backed No | 72c | 320.15$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.54 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d2…d960backed No | 69c | 310$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf865…d8b0backed Yes | 34c | 303.94$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.1 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61a5…12fdbacked Yes | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e88…0670backed Yes | 34c | 294.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 281.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84dd…8701backed No | 73c | 280.25$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.46 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d7…9207backed Yes | 36c | 275.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1588…89febacked No | 74c | 271.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d2…53c9backed Yes | 32c | 266.31$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 47cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…97f1backed Yes | 35c | 250$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.4 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8922…f01dbacked Yes | 26c | 240$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa0…488bbacked Yes | 35c | 222.04$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.71 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcc…f59cbacked No | 68c | 220.86$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.3 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…45a9backed Yes | 30c | 220$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 67c | 219.08$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.21 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Greens be part of the next German government?this page
- Will the AFD be part of the next German government?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government?Yes won
- Will the Left be part of the next German government?No won
- Will the SPD be part of the next German government?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.