TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0623…35db

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
158
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: NHL, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category NHL at 57 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 29, 2025, EDT6563.1%41 W · 24 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 65 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the Western Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$276.92
Hawks vs. Hornetsbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$8.84
Spurs vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$5.64
Raptors vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$6.32
Pacers vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Heat vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT+37%+$7.4
Hornets vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$24
Mavericks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Nuggets vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$76
Pacers vs. Bullsbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$68
Lakers vs. Netsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Hornets vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$79
76ers vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT+25.2%+$29.24
Wizards vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$29
Kings vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$32
Cavaliers vs. Bucksbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$23
Jazz vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$31
Suns vs. Mavericksbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$28
Nuggets vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$26
Pistons vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EST+44.9%+$31
Lakers vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EST+42.9%+$30
Bulls vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EST-100%-$64
Pelicans vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST+31.6%+$24
Nets vs. Hornetsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST-100%-$64
Knicks vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST+44.9%+$31
Showing 25 of 65 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2025, EDT3080%24 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick69cpaid+17%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
NHL — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sabres vs. Bruinsbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,656Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT+45%+$745.25
Flyers vs. Lightningbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2025, EDT+25.1%+$11.31
Blues vs. Penguinsbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2025, EDT+25%+$14.57
Ducks vs. Utahbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$35.14
Red Wings vs. Senatorsbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$39
Oilers vs. Sabresbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$65.82
Kraken vs. Capitalsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EDT+41.8%+$29.47
Blues vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EST+53.8%+$35
Blackhawks vs. Predatorsbacked Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EST+37%+$27
Sabres vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST+40.8%+$29
Red Wings vs. Capitalsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST+47.1%+$32
Ducks vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Penguins vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2025, EST+38.9%+$38.89
Kings vs. Blackhawksbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Sharks vs. Maple Leafsbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Lightning vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+66.7%+$13.33
Senators vs. Capitalsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+69.5%+$13.9
Predators vs. Rangersbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+58.7%+$58.73
Blues vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST+47.1%+$47.06
Flames vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST+42.9%+$42.86
Bruins vs. Wildbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST+69.5%+$69.49
Maple Leafs vs. Penguinsbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST+56.3%+$56.25
Flyers vs. Jetsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Sharks vs. Senatorsbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST+33.3%+$33.33
Flames vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST+49.3%+$49.25
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2025, EDT1258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+59.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,000
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+215.5%+$646.43
Will the Greens be part of the next German government?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$305Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$305
Will Daniel Noboa win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$96.08
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+376.2%+$188.1
Will The Left make it into the Bundestag as a Fraktion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+234.2%+$327.95
BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$55
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+92.5%+$277.6
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$56.25
Will The Left wins 5% or more of vote in German election? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$3,612Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+144.8%+$5,228.99
Will the Liberals win the second most seats in the next Ontario Parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$200
All 12 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1040%4 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+117.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$29.87
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$38.89
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$470Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$470
Will Russia recapture Sudzha by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Trump ends all military aid to Ukraine before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+354.5%+$177.27
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST+1,347.4%+$673.71
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$50
All 10 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 7, 2025, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-65.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.36per pick50cpaid-79%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2025, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2025, EST50%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2025, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 10, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$54
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+71.1%+$71.1
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Wolves vs. Everton end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST+37.1%+$27.05
Will Brighton vs. Fulham end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST-100%-$62
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kanye launch a coin in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$21.43
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 800-849 times Feb 21-28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST+29.9%+$29.87
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$14
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 50 or more times during the March meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.